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QUESTION TIME | Two factors will weigh heavily on the opposition’s chances in the forthcoming nationwide elections. One, the absence of Islamist PAS from the opposition alliance Pakatan Harapan, and, two, the imminent presence of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia in Pakatan.

The first has got to be major negative for Pakatan - PAS did after all get 21 Parliament seats in the last elections although this has now been whittled down to 14 when seven MPs defected to form the breakaway Parti Amanah Negara.

The second is a rather iffy, questionable, doubtful alliance with former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and former deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, with the common aim being the removal of Najib Abdul Razak as prime minister. Both of them were unable to move Umno enough to remove Najib as president - hence this partnership of convenience.

Under the Federal Constitution, the 13th Parliament will automatically dissolve on June 24, 2018, exactly five years after its first sitting and the 14th general election, or GE14, has to be held within two months, that is by Aug 24 next year.

That means GE14 has to be called within the next 17 months. That’s the maximum amount of time that the opposition has to put its house in order before facing the BN ruling coalition at the next polls. Will they be able to do much during that time? And will it be enough?

Amanah, which is being branded as the face of more progressive Islam, has seven MPs and is being positioned to take over from PAS as the mainstay party in the Malay heartland areas of Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah as PAS exits the Pakatan coalition.

Still PAS is among the oldest parties in Malaysia and has a brand and name which cannot be underestimated among more fundamental Muslims. In a worst-case scenario, Pakatan may have to make good 21 seats just to maintain its previous tally in Parliament of 89 seats at the end of the GE13 in May 2013.

Pakatan can ill afford to lose as many as 21 seats - nearly a quarter of its total tally - from PAS effectively crossing over to form an informal alliance with Umno - two of the strongest Malay-based parties in peninsular Malaysia.

Amanah remains unproven and in its first outing in the Sungai Besar parliamentary by-election in June last year it garnered some 24 percent of votes, which was higher than PAS’ 22 percent, but with BN taking 53 percent and easily retaining the seat. Imagine how powerful Umno and PAS are going to be when they join hands.

Pakatan should have done a lot more to keep PAS within the fold. Admittedly that became a lot more difficult with the passing of PAS spiritual leader Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat in February 2015, often considered a moderating influence in PAS and one who was opposed to working with Umno.

PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang however considers the furthering of Islam above all, something which Umno deftly employed to entice PAS into an alliance of sorts as PAS and Pakatan, with DAP in the frontline, saw a steady deterioration in relationship.

The loss of PAS will cost Pakatan dearly at the state level too - in Selangor for instance, or any attempt to retake Perak and Kedah. It is not something that can be easily offset by including Bersatu in the alliance - a bond already sullied as the principal actors in the plot here have a rather ignominious past. In fact, it will be correct to say that Pakatan was formed to fight the likes of them - and did in the past...

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