Like many of the other Malaysians I have spoken to, I was thoroughly surprised by the release of the ISA detainees. Probably no one expected this moribund, insecure government to break with its normal practice of forcibly shutting down all threats - and that too with popular personalities who still pose a huge challenge to Umno's continued hold on power.

It's still too early to say what prompted this action. Some have suggested that the government gave in to the tremendous pressure that was being applied, both nationally and internationally, for the detainees to be released.

That may be true to a certain extent, but I don't believe that is the dominant reason. I think the action is more in line with the very subtle shift that has started in the corridors of power as we approach the changing of the guard in October.

The crucial issue is the role Prime Minister-designate Abdullah Ahmad Badawi played in the detainees' release. Was it mainly Pak Lah's decision that Mahathir agreed to go along with, or did Pak Lah just rubber-stamp what Mahathir instructed him to do?

I believe that while Mahathir is still the ultimate power, Pak Lah has begun to assert his authority, and started shaping what the government will look and act like after Mahathir leaves. And the one thing both men (and whoever else has a say in what happens) may have agreed on is that for Umno to have any chance of staying relevant, it will have to solve the Anwar issue satisfactorily.

For Pak Lah personally, it must be an unwelcome prospect to be left holding the Anwar 'hot potato' when the problem was basically between Mahathir and Anwar. That's not a cloud Pak Lah would like to have hovering over him as he starts his tenure as the country's leader.

Was the release of the ISA detainees the opening gambit in an ultimate solution to the Anwar issue?

The release of the detainees should also serve notice that it would be foolish for anyone to think that Pak Lah is going to be a weak, stop-gap leader while the real Umno power-brokers fight out their battles to decide who is going to be the 'next Mahathir'.

The prime minister-designate is a smart, educated man who has shown himself to be a tremendous survivalist in the dog-eat-dog world of Umno, coming back from being a losing anti-Mahathirist to the brink of landing the country's ultimate political job.

I suspect that if he can forge some kind of understanding and partnership with Anwar and his people, Pak Lah may turn out to be just the kind of progressive leader this country needs for it to once again become one of Asia's most progressive and modern states.

The release of the detainees may also have been a pointed message to another group who have increasingly fancied themselves as kingmakers - the police.

Umno has relied heavily on the police to maintain and consolidate its power since the Anwar issue erupted. Unfortunately, that has led to the cops believing they have a blank cheque to do anything they want, and they have clearly become more and more irresponsible and thuggish as time has gone by.

It's been pretty obvious that the police do not want the ISA detainees freed. Pak Lah may have just sent some not-so-subtle orders for the cops to get in line and start changing their behaviour.