Lately, the Election Commission had announced the by-election date for Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar as June 18. The commission also set the date for early voting as June 14, and June 5 for nomination. The announcement followed the demise of BN lawmakers Noriah Kasnon and Wan Mohamad Khair-il Anuar Wan Ahmad of Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar respectively. The twin by-elections are also touted as the best litmus test for the upcoming 14th general election in 2018.
While opposition parties suffering growing rifts, BN is expected to gain advantage from it. The recent spat between DAP and PKR over seats during Sarawak’s state elections is stark evidence of their weakening coalition. The contest over seats had drawn heavy criticisms - even among the die-hard supporters of opposition parties.
Last year, PAS and DAP traded barbs over hudud and ended their relationship. Eventually, on the Sept 16, 2015, Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) was formed by a group of progressive PAS members led by Mohamad Sabu to oppose PAS’s stance to not to cooperate with DAP.
Despite allegedly projecting itself as BN-friendly, PAS teamed up with Ikatan Bangsa Malaysia (Ikatan), another political party lead by former information minister Abdul Kadir Sheikh Fadzir on March 16, 2016. This new unlikely team is now seen as the third political block after BN and Pakatan Harapan.
Past election results
If we look at the past election results for Sungai Besar, the late Noriah won the seat with only a 399-vote majority, defeating PAS’s Mohamed Salleh M Husin in a two-cornered fight. Whereas in Kuala Kangsar, the late Wan Mohammad Khair-il won the seat with a majority of 1,082 votes, defeating Khalil Idham Lim Abdullah of PAS and Kamilia Ibrahim, an Independent contender. in a three-cornered fight.
However, based on the current affairs among the opposition parties, it is almost confirmed that both constituencies will face at least three- cornered fights this coming June 18. And of course, the loosened ties between the opposition parties will contribute to a rise in the vote majority for BN.
Adding to this, BN’s recent landslide victory in Sarawak’s state elections is a classic example, where many of its constituencies witnessed three-cornered fights which favoured BN and also increased its vote majorities comparatively. BN also managed to win big in the state election, despite opposition parties’ effort to smear its image with the 1MDB scandal and Goods and Services Tax (GST) issues.
On the other hand, the opposition blamed the Sarawak state government’s barring of a number of key opposition political leaders from entering the Land of the Hornbill and the widespread alleged money politics for their worst-ever performance in the state elections.
Adding salt to the wound, Selangor Menteri Besar Azmin Ali had also urged PAS to give way for PKR to contest in Sungai Besar. However, PAS is adamant to contest the seat. Other than PAS, Amanah’s leader, Mohamad Sabu, is also eying contesting for the Sungai Besar seat to prove Amanah’s strength following its embarrassing defeats in Sarawak’s state elections.
In Kuala Kangsar, the situation would almost be the same, where PAS and PKR will definitely compete with BN for the seat. And Amanah is most likely to join the hunt.
Sympathy votes
Since both seats were occupied by the late BN leaders without any major flaws in their track record, their untimely death is expected to draw overwhelming sympathy votes. So, I would say that it is not an exaggeration if BN repeats its landslide victory in the coming twin by-elections.
Should this weakening of opposition coalition continue, BN would have the best platform for its political strategists to secure a major victory in the 14th general election, despite being tainted by a few major financial scandals and alleged abuses of power. Having said this, the twin by-elections are indeed going to be the litmus test for BN and the rest of the political parties to define their future in the upcoming general election.
