In the 1999 general election, just after the then deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim was ousted from the government and subsequently from Umno, the majority of the Malays were infuriated and turned out to be more at odds with the government.

A substantial number of Malay votes during that election went to the opposition parties in the Barisan Alternatif (BA). Barisan Nasional garnered some 56% of the popular vote but only 148 out of the 193 parliamentary seats, that is some 77% of the seats. This meant that Umno lost 22 seats.

The Islamic party, PAS, triumphed in Terengganu. PAS also swept Kelantan and in many other states the presence of PAS assemblymen and those from the DAP and Keadilan was apparent. There were also a sizeable number of Malay opposition members in Parliament. It could have been a terrifying experience for Umno, if not for the significant number of non-Malay votes that went to the ruling coalition and it was this that saved Umno and many of its leaders at that time.

Under the present leadership, Umno may once again see some challenges from the Malays themselves come the next general election. The disgruntled lots within Umno may go for broke and their pretext would be to make the electorate perceive the style of the present leadership as being not sturdy enough.

The bickering within Umno is now brewing with the former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad (TDM) grinding his axe with some of his followers imperturbably backing him. Some Umno leaders who are holding covetous posts in the government, no doubt, are gutsy enough to speak against TDM. There is also another group within Umno that prefers to remain non-aligned and are waiting to see which direction the wind blows. They would swiftly make a stand when the time comes. This is not uncommon in Malay politics.

The next general election, whether the economic scenario then is on the upbeat or not, could again see some splits among the Malay voters. It may thus seem a wise political move - though to the chagrin of some disgruntled party members - on the part of Umno president to postpone the next Umno party elections to after the general election. This tactic is not new in Umno politics as it was done by TDM as well during his tenure as prime minister. Umno members should not now complain about this tactical move.

The non-Malays would again come to the aid of Umno, via the Barisan Nasional, to ensure that the coalition wins the general election perhaps with its majority slightly reduced compared to the previous general election. The minority races in the country, in general, would prefer to see that there is political stability in the country by voting for the incumbent.

Paradoxically, the increase in the population of the Malays or Muslims in the country would not necessarily make them a united lot. Malays and Muslims are known to have split for many reasons - power, status and religio-political adherence.

The non-Malays or non-Muslims, or for that matter the non-bumiputeras, being the minority, are rather benign. The majority of them, since independence, have demonstrated to be loyal to the ruling coalition. They would just be happy if their livelihood is secured and thereby depend on the government for their economic prosperity. Religion, theoretically, is not much of an issue to them as long as their basic rights are protected under the constitution.

So, if Umno does not rile this portion of electorate and treads with wisdom in cajoling them, it would help in ensuring the success of the BN in the next general election. With this win, the Umno president should then start doing some spring cleaning - Machiavellian style or not.

In order for him to be entrenched as a party leader, the thorns now pricking his flesh should be eliminated. He should remove those who have been fickle and faithless while garnering more strength by having indisputable supporters at every level of the government machinery to steer him clear of future impediments in managing the country.

Politics in the country is quite unique in the sense that when the boat consisting of the main race and religion of the country is sinking, the boat that comprises the minorities would always come to its rescue. So Umno should play smart by not irking the minority races as it cannot be certain that the Malays or Muslims would always be with them in times of political turbulence.