I refer to the Malaysiakini report Najib takes over as finance minister.

Although the PM has held the post of minister of finance, this is not a "tradition", unless you count a practice that is about 10 years old a tradition. Dr Mahathir took on the finance portfolio after Anwar Ibrahim was sacked. Prior to that, we had a separate minister of finance, going back to Tan Siew Sin's time and even before that to Tan Cheng Lock.

My immediate observation is to note that this may well be a poisoned chalice, and the deputy PM should beware. Malaysia's economy is underperforming at the moment, and the outlook internationally is uncertain.

Should the Malaysian economy descend into further trouble in the next two years, or worse still grind to a halt, the blame would, naturally, lie with the deputy PM as finance minister. If he is proven to be unable to get our financial house in order, critics would then argue that he would be the wrong person to whom to turn over the leadership of our country in June 2010 or earlier.

Some may have overlooked the fact that it was the deputy PM, in his capacity as deputy chairman of BN, who was in charge of the BN election machinery during the 12th general election. We all know how sterlingly well that went for the BN.

The situation with respect to National Service in this country can also be placed squarely on his shoulders, since National Service comes within the defence portfolio.

It would appear therefore that there are already two strikes against the deputy PM. Will it be a case of three strikes and you are out?

It should also be pointed out that Halloween, on October 31, will mark the PM's fifth anniversary as PM. The question remains whether he will still be there to celebrate that anniversary. Parliament re-convenes on October 13, and will provide the opposition with their opportunity either to table a motion of no confidence or to vote down the budget. By parliamentary convention, a defeat on a vote on any money bill (which includes the budget) is tantamount to a vote of no confidence, and the government must resign.

Although the date of September 16 was bandied about, it was difficult to see how a change of government could have taken place when Parliament was (and still is) in recess, unless an independent Speaker of Parliament agreed to recall Parliament. But what reason would he have to recall Parliament if the PM has not resigned?

The Agong has no reason to invite a new person to try to form a new government if the sitting PM has not yet been shown to have lost the support of a majority of members in the Dewan Rakyat. Mere showing of pieces of paper would not be enough, as clearly seen in March this year with respect to the post of menteri besar of Terengganu.

No doubt it is a pure coincidence that the current Agong is the Sultan of Terengganu. Were the events of March 2008 a dress rehearsal of things to come? It should be noted that on that occasion, the incumbent was shown the door.

So the key dates now could well be between the 13 and 31 of October. Interestingly enough, 31 is the number of MPs stated by Anwar Ibrahim as having agreed to shift their support to him.