‘Eh, that fellow go to parliament also, why nothing happen? Just stand up and talk only long time!’
That was a comment from a relative - a long-time Anwar doubter - a few days after the Dewan Rakyat resumed on Oct 13. It was just one of many cases of such people gloating and openly laughing after Anwar Ibrahim and his Pakatan Rakyat failed to deliver the so-called ‘takeover’ of Putrajaya.
Well, at least Anwar has cleared up one thing in the last couple of days - Pakatan is now in ‘no hurry’ to ‘take over’ the government. It will spare lots of people who so fervently placed their hopes on ‘916' occurring at least some embarrassment. We can all get on with our lives now, folks!
Let's be clear about one thing. Admiration for Anwar remains high. His legendary history of leadership and activism, his vision for what Malaysia should be, the way he has been treated over the last decade, and above all else, his leading role in breaching the previously unchallenged Barisan Nasional supremacy and building a strong opposition beachhead on March 8 have all ensured a privileged place for him in Malaysian history.
He also remains the best hope for the complete overhaul of Malaysia that so many Malaysians so desperately seek. And who knows? The ‘takeover’ may still be on track!
Having said that, the whole 916 episode is a head-scratcher, and there is no doubt that Anwar's sterling reputation has taken a hit, even among his most dedicated supporters. There are lots of questions flying around - and the best thing Anwar can do is to fully reveal the whole story, unless of course there are still some ‘takeover’ cards to be played.
There are a number of possibilities about what really happened - or never did happen - and Anwar comes out looking bad in all of them.
1. The would-be ‘defectors’ played him out/chickened out. That, on the surface, appears to be the most likely scenario. Did all the 31 or so MPs who were supposed to cross over - or at least enough of them to neutralise the planned takeover - turn out to be double turncoats or gutless wonders by changing their minds at the last minute? If that's the case, then clearly the Pakatan leadership showed political naivete and maybe a bit of desperation and blind ambition in trusting some of the very people who provide the legs for the BN stool.
Did Anwar not get a binding commitment - nothing short of pen to paper - from them before going to town with the ‘takeover’ announcement? If he didn't, it was politically amateurish. In any case, if they played out Anwar, it is only fair that Anwar should repay the favour by revealing their identities, and the whole story of what happened.
2. The 916 announcement was just a high-risk gamble to create defectors where there were none. This also appears to be a strong possibility. Anwar may have believed - and maybe heard - that after the beating the BN got on March 8, and with the Pakatan appearing to be on the ascendancy, there was a large number of BN MPs who were ripe for the plucking by the opposition. The thinking may have been that if Anwar could boldly declare that he actually had enough MPs to form the government on Sept. 16, enough of them would actually decide to switch over and make the bluff a reality.
Once again, if this is the case, it showed amateur politics. In the dog-eat-dog world of BN politics, only the toughest and sharpest are able to make it to the top, which is to become a BN MP. Did Anwar really think these people were going to easily fall for what was essentially designed to be a trick?
3. The 916 announcement was just a way to keep Anwar and the Pakatan in the headlines for an extended period. That's what Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has been claiming all along - that Anwar is just a publicity hound who will do anything to stay in the news. If that's true, then it reflects very badly on Anwar and reveals a weakness that is troubling.
You cannot deny the fact that the whole 916 episode did keep Anwar in the headlines for a long time. Tens of thousands were turning out for regular ceramah, the media - both national and international - were hanging on to his every word and move. Now suddenly, there are no more such ceramah.
4. The 916 thing was just a ploy designed to create further instability and doubts in an already-shaky BN. This is the most favourable reading of the situation for Anwar. There is little doubt that as long as 916 was in play, the BN - and specifically Umno - were under tremendous pressure and not able to sort out their internal problems. Maybe Anwar was hoping that enough instability would be created for the BN to self-destruct.
But if that was the case, the motive would have been better served by not putting a date - certain on when the takeover would occur. As it is, it shaped up to be some sort of a high-noon showdown on Sept 16 - and it was the BN that showed up for the duel, not Anwar, who had thrown down the challenge in the first place.
5. Authorities found a ‘Lewinsky stain’ in connection with the sodomy case. This is the most far-fetched and unlikely theory, but a theory nevertheless. Did the authorities find damning evidence and essentially tell Anwar that unless he dropped his 916 plans, they would reveal the evidence and make the sodomy case an open-and-shut one?
Under different circumstances, a failure of the magnitude of 916 would be enough to permanently kill off the career of a politician. To give so many people so much hope, to consistently talk as though it is a done deal, and then to not deliver, would be a damning indictment.
But such is the desire for change, and the reservoir of goodwill for Anwar, that most people who risked their own necks in going along with Anwar's takeover talk are not displaying the anger they would be expected to. In fact, what is remarkable is that while people are very disappointed, Anwar's support largely doesn't appear to have abandoned him.
For all that, Anwar owes his supporters and Malaysians in general a detailed and timely explanation of what happened. And if nothing really happened, then he needs to come out and admit he made a mistake.
With the questionable cast of characters who are set to take over the BN in the next six months, there appears to be an even more urgent need for change - and Anwar needs to put 916 firmly behind him and once again lead the fight for reformasi.
PROPERTY