ANALYSIS Despite Chinese representation in government being one of the taglines for the BN during its campaign in the recent Sarawak campaign, the defeat of SUPP may mean that it won’t be able to provide what it promised.

This is because the main party representing the Chinese in the ruling coalition, the SUPP, have lost 13 of the 19 seats it contested in the state election, with a number of its top leaders biting the dust.

More seriously, its president and outgoing Sarawak Deputy Chief Minister George Chan ( right ), who held the number two position in the state, lost his seat to a DAP newcomer.

This may spell the end of Chan’s tenure, when the SUPP next holds its party election in about half a year. Will party strongman and state deputy minister Wong Soon Koh take over as party chief?

And more pertinently, who will be next deputy chief minister? These questions may lead to a possible internal party crisis after the state elections.

The defeat of many of SUPP’s Chinese leaders also begs the question of whether Iban leaders in the party will have more say now.

It is an open secret that Chan and Wong are leading two major factions in the party. Soon after the party's setback in the 2006 state election, Wong had teamed up with the party deputy president Law Hieng Ding to oust Chan.

However the revolt failed as the group could not get a wide support from the other forces in the party.

Although the in-fighting was eventually resolved, Chan's defeat this time could provide a golden opportunity for his detractors to launch another attack on him.

The defeat of many of SUPP's Chinese leaders also begs the question of whether native leaders in the party will have more say now, especially those who have survived this election. They include Ranum Mina (Opar), Jerip Susil (Bengoh), Francis Harden (Simanggang) and Johnical Rayong (Engkilili).

And will they be appointed as ministers and deputy ministers if SUPP’s quota is to be maintained in the new state cabinet?

Political analyst Ong Kian Ming believes that it will be a dangerous move for BN to deny Chinese representation in the state government by putting Iban leaders as SUPP stand-ins.

“This will risk more Chinese alienation in Sarawak and will send the wrong kind of message to Chinese in the peninsula,” warned Ong.

All of these problems, said Ong, bodes ill for the SUPP.

“The danger for SUPP is that it will be like Gerakan - deprived of power in the only state where it has a political presence. It’s only lucky for them that BN did not lose power,” said the political analyst.

Same dynamics as Gerakan and MCA

What could result is the same dynamics that happened when Gerakan and MCA lost Chinese votes to the DAP, leading Umno to blame both the Chinese-based parties for their losses, in turn decreasing both parties’ role and say in the BN hierarchy.

The major defeat of the party by the DAP in Chinese-majority areas is believed to be caused by anti-CM Abdul Taib Mahmud sentiments.

“It also demonstrates SUPP’s inability to reinvigorate itself, distance itself from the perspective of the old-timers as well as the lack of gender representation,” explained Ong.

This is something which the DAP took full advantage of with their fielding of their youthful female candidates in what was termed as their “female assassins” strategy.

The only winner in this inside SUPP, if any at all, is Wong ( right ) who will most probably become the deputy chief minister and also inherit the mantle of party president.

Though what benefit he will get from inheriting a party gutted by the state elections is open to question.

In all probability, Ong surmised that it is unwise for Najib to call a general election anytime soon unless it managed to solve the problem of Chinese representation, with SUPP defunct in Sarawak and MCA and Gerakan losing ground in the peninsula as well.