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Taiwanese people are expected to elect their first female president on Saturday, with the island’s ties to China a deciding factor between her and her main challenger.

Tsai Ing-wen of the China-sceptic opposition enjoys a comfortable lead over the ruling party candidate, largely due to widespread discontent over current president Ma Ying-jeou’s policies, which have been criticised as too Beijing-leaning.

Several polls conducted last week suggest Tsai, who chairs the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), is at least 20 percent ahead of her main rival, Eric Chu, the candidate for the ruling Nationalists (KMT).

A KMT poll on Jan 4, however, put the difference between the two at eight percent, with nearly 19 percent undecided.

The campaign has featured issues including a near-bankrupt pension system, food safety, high real-estate prices, a stagnant economy, and social care in an aging society with a low birth rate.

But it is the issue of relations with the People’s Republic that divides the two main parties. The KMT favours closer ties with the People’s Republic but the DPP favours independence.

James Soong of the People First Party is the third candidate in the race, but has least chance of winning, according to polls.

Tsai has reassured voters that she would keep the relations with Beijing peaceful while ensuring Taiwan’s dignity.

Tsai, 59, lost the 2012 race. Many political analysts believe that loss was because voters distrusted her party’s China policy.

This time she points to a broad consensus in Taiwan that she says prefers “maintaining the status quo” in relations with the People’s Republic. In her visit to the United States in June 2015, she said she is “committed to a consistent, predictable, and sustainable relationship with China”.

“While I advocate for constructive exchanges and dialogues with China, I will ensure the process is democratic and transparent, and that the economic benefits are equitably shared,” Tsai said.

DPP secretary-general Joseph Wu told dpa that a DPP-led government would “find possibilities to narrow the differences in between two sides”.

He said that the DPP would seek understanding from opposition parties over domestic and foreign policies as well as reassure China, US and other partners.

In the parliamentary elections to be held on the same day as the presidential polls, surveys indicate that the DPP may win over half of the seats for the first time.

“It will be a historic change but we still need to be very careful. We don’t want to go back to the old days of confrontation,” Wu said.

Since Ma took office in 2008, Taiwan and China have signed 23 agreements. Top cross-strait affairs officials have met seven times, and direct flights across the strait have gone from zero to 120 daily.

Landmark meeting

The rapprochement culminated in a landmark meeting between Ma and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Singapore in November, unprecedented for leaders of the two sides in 66 years.

A difficult history, however, is not easily forgotten.

Taiwan has been self-ruled since KMT forces withdrew there in 1949 after losing a civil war against the Communists on the mainland but Beijing claims sovereignty over the island.

The KMT’s 54-year-old candidate Chu says Tsai’s cross-strait policies are unclear, and its spokesperson Eric Huang told dpa that Tsai had failed to clarify her view on the topic.

Beijing insists any new Taiwanese leader must recognise the ‘1992 consensus’, a tacit understanding between the KMT and China that there is only one China, but each is free to define ‘China’ for itself. The DPP has never recognised the agreement.

Huang said that the 1992 consensus is “a working formula that is agreed upon by all players involved” and it is hard to predict how Beijing would react if Tsai is elected.

“When the situation is uncertain, stability becomes an issue. That’s always bad for the economy,” Huang said.

China is Taiwan’s largest export market. Some fear an overreliance on the Chinese market would enable Beijing to use economic leverage to push for reunification.

Such worries sparked protests in the spring of 2014, when university students occupied the parliament. Protesters urged the government to temporarily shelve all negotiations with Beijing.

Tao Yi-feng, a political scientist at National Taiwan University, says that if she wins, China will be watching Tsai for some time after the election.

“Before the US year-end presidential election, it’s unlikely (there will be) a dramatic change in China's policies towards Taiwan,” Tao said.

- dpa

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