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'Dr M won’t be of help to fragmented opposition in by-elections'

Campaigning against the BN by Dr Mahathir Mohamad for the June 18 Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections will not help the opposition's chances much, as they are too fragmented to be able to truly focus on the former prime minister star power, analysts say.

Merdeka Center programme director Ibrahim Suffian said Mahathir can only have an advantageous impact on the opposition if it was united.

“(There’s) little hope, even with help from Mahathir.

“Given that the opposition has fragmented and is moving in different directions, I think it's difficult even for someone of Mahathir's stature to pull voters into supporting them,” Ibrahim told Malaysiakini.

In the multi-cornered contests that Ibrahim said will most likely occur, the opposition’s Malay vote will be split into two - those remaining with PAS and those inclined to support other parties, such as Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah).

“Realistically, the opposition has little chance of wresting these seats from the BN.

“In my view, the so-called Pakatan Harapan has little hope in attracting Malay voters away from PAS, given the dissension among themselves, and hampered by their lack of strong Malay leadership,” Ibrahim (photo) explained.

On the other hand, the political, security and international affairs cluster head of the National Council of Professors, Mohamed Mustafa Ishak, believes that the opposition stands to benefit from Mahathir campaigning for them, with the caveat that the seats see one-to-one fights.

“Umno will face another front; it has to face the opposition front directly and it has to make preparations to face Mahathir. It’s going to be tough for Umno," Mustafa argued.

But like Ibrahim, Mustafa said the most important issue is whether the fights would be straight or multi-cornered.

Mahathir hopes for one-to-one fights

“He (Mahathir) also said he was hoping for a one-to-one fight. If these are going to be one-to-one fights, then the opposition may stand a chance," said the professor.

The by-elections, he added, are particularly important as Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak would like to show that the BN is still very much popular.

“He wants to show that despite all the other issues - 1MDB as well as criticism against Najib by Mahathir - the BN still can win.

“Mahathir, on the other hand, might use the opportunity to campaign for the Citizens’ Declaration and continue his attacks against the prime minister,” Mustafa added.

Meanwhile, independent analyst Khoo Kay Peng is also of the opinion that having Mahathir campaigning for the opposition would only benefit them if they can avoid multi-cornered fights.

“If the opposition loses, it will be because there’s no cohesiveness. If Najib loses both seats, even with multi-cornered fights, it means the people are ready to punish him,” Khoo said.

Should the opposition lose, Mahathir, however, would not look as bad as them.

“It’s not Mahathir versus Najib. Mahathir is just a factor but he has no electoral involvement. (He is) not leading a contesting party,” he said.

But should the BN lose, Khoo said, Mahathir can then start a momentum to push for internal revolt.

Former Batu Kawan Umno vice-chairperson Khairuddin Abu Hassan has confirmed that Mahathir would be hitting the campaign trail in both the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections.

The former prime minister recently urged the opposition parties to combine their efforts in order to prevent BN from retaining the two Parliament seats.

The by-elections, to be held on June 18, were called following the death of its incumbents Sungai Besar MP Noriah Kasnon and Kuala Kangsar lawmaker Wan Mohammad Khair-il Anuar Wan Ahmad.

The two were among six who died in a helicopter crash during the recent state election campaign period in Sarawak.

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