COMMENT | In exploring a potential takeover attempt in Selangor, we ask ourselves, where does Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak stand in all of this?

Najib finds himself faced with an interesting scenario. Before we go into the details of where he stands in Selangor, it is useful for us to remind ourselves of his overall priorities and meta-strategy.

From Najib’s perspective, there is nothing at all more important than winning GE14. Everything else - including whatever may or may not happen in Selangor - is secondary.

To summarise the (somewhat obvious) conditions necessary to ensure this victory, Najib must make BN look as good and united as possible, while making the opposition look as bad and disunited as possible.

How does this factor into the Selangor case?

Najib/BN not interested in running Selangor

My feeling is that Najib has no interest in BN running Selangor between now and the next general election.

Doing so, or trying to do so, has many cons, and very few pros.

There is after all, little to nothing that Selangor can give to BN in the few months left before the general election - certainly nothing that BN doesn’t have already.

Should they take the helm of a government in Selangor formed by crossover, they will bear the brunt of the backlash.

The urban, non-Malay crowd especially - both in and out of Selangor - will likely harden their already hard anti-BN sentiment, blaming them for an unethical, undemocratic and ‘unconstitutional’ power grab; just as they did in Perak 2009.

This will have negative electoral ramifications for BN throughout the country, not just in Selangor.

Getting others to do the dirty work

This however, isn’t to say that Najib has nothing to gain from a change of power in Selangor. Quite the contrary.

By letting PAS or someone else run Selangor, Najib can likely reap all the benefits, and pay little to none of the cost - essentially letting someone else both do the dirty work, and be the fall guy.

The first major outcome of a change of government in Selangor that will benefit Najib immensely is that it will put the final nail in the coffin with regards to relations between PAS and Pakatan Harapan.

Should PAS participate in a hostile takeover and, worse yet, nominate themselves to the leadership of Selangor, they will earn the unending animosity of Pakatan Harapan.

Any seat in the country where either Pakatan Harapan or PAS have even the slightest chance of victory (as well as many seats where they lack even that) will end up being a three-cornered fight - a brutal war of attrition which will leave both sides decimated, with an ascendant, leviathan BN laughing over the ashes.

After the last muktamar, this may already be the scenario we are facing; but a hostile takeover by PAS in Selangor would remove any shred of doubt.

Poisoned gifts in the wilderness

A wise, well-positioned PAS would think long and hard about poisoned gifts before accepting any offer from BN to lead the way in Selangor.

As it happens however, PAS currently wanders a desolate political wilderness, neither here nor there.

In their muktamar, it is easy to mistake for unity what is actually a dearth of vibrant democracy and dissent.

The leadership of PAS may be following their leader as one, but that does not necessarily mean that they are following that leader down the path to success.

PAS has painted itself into a dangerous corner, where they have burnt their bridges with Pakatan Harapan, but will soon find that BN has no use for them beyond a one night stand.

Left in this position and grasping at straws, PAS may just make the mistake of being goaded into leading a power grab in Selangor.

Sadly, the ‘oases’ a thirsty man lunges toward in the dessert is too often filled with nothing but more dusty sand...