Modelling suggests Covid-19 cases to rise steadily unless more is done

Modified 14 Nov 2020, 12:23 pm

COVID-19 | The number of Covid-19 cases in Malaysia is expected to rise steadily over the next four weeks unless stronger interventions are introduced to curtail its spread, according to projections by Imperial College London’s MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis.

Its model estimated that the number of Covid-19 infections in Malaysia is projected to increase steadily to about 7,467 infections per day by Dec 8 if no new measures are introduced to curb its spread. It also projected there would be about 16 Covid-19 deaths per day.

This is an increase from the model’s estimate of 4,413 infections per day as of Nov 10. The figure is vastly different from the official tally of 869 confirmed cases that day due to the model’s particular approach to account for underreporting of Covid-19 cases.

The model also forecasted that if public health interventions are strengthened such that Covid-19 transmission is slashed in half, then the daily number of infections would drop to 647 by Dec 8 – a reduction of about 91.3 percent compared to the status quo.

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