Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamed wants his successor Abdullah Ahmad Badawi (Pak Lah) to name his deputy prime minister now, and wants him to be the Umno vice president and defence minister Najib Abdul Razak.

Abdullah, on the other hand, leans towards another vice president and cabinet minister, Muhyiddin Yassin. Any move to change horses midstream, for that is what he is ordered to, could rebound on him and deny him the succession.

Mahathir wants an orderly succession but realises he cannot have it if those after him go for one another's throats. He would rather have, despite his enthusiastic endorsement, Najib than Abdullah succeed him. But Najib accepts he is too young. It could embroil him in a leadership struggle he could not contain if he made a bid now. And he would rather be deputy to a more acceptable leader. That leader, in his view, is not Abdullah.

Mahathir demands a shot-gun political marriage he could not enforce. Abdullah knows this, but he cannot confront without an open breach. He says he would announce his putative deputy prime minister after the Pendang and Anak Bukit bye-elections on July 18. Why should he? Mahathir remains prime minister till October 2003. If he were to annoint his deputy so early, he loses ground no matter whom he decides upon.

If he names Najib, his rift with his new deputy intensifies. He becomes known as one beholden to Mahathir and be seen, inevitably, as a weak leader. If he names Muhyiddin or any one else, he defies Mahathir, and the Umno infighting continues with a vengeance. Abdullah is damned whoever he appoints. And if it is anyone than Najib, Mahathir's days in office are numbered.

Fallout from the Anwar episode

Mahathir must live with Abdullah naming whom he wants as his deputy prime minister. If the Umno he leaves behind dissolves in fractious infighting, it rebounds on him. Besides, destroying his reputation as a Malaysian leader. He had had four deputies since he became prime minister in 1981. He got rid of three and had the fourth forced upon him.

He wanted Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, but the Umno supreme council insisted it must someone from amongst the vice presidents. So Abdullah it was. But Abdullah, though immensely popular, has political enemies galore, many thought he was a stopgap, and the Umno ground felt the time is past for leaders to be appointed this way.

He was appointed when Mahathir's own governance was challenged. The Anwar Ibrahim affair became the conscience of the Malay cultural ground, which rebelled. That Mahathir could not appoint whom he wanted was the first indication the Anwar affair would cost him much.

Anwar remains in jail. Tengku Razaleigh, however much he denies it, is a potential challenger. Najib is prepared to be his deputy should he contest the Umno presidency. Mahathir knows the danger of this. He lost more ground when he could not get the Umno supreme council to appoint him as finance minister.

Market sources say it was to assuage Malaysia's creditors worried and frightened at the casual way in which Malaysia's finances and fiscal policies are managed. And again when the three vice presidents rebelled at it.

Political machinations

Mahathir should let Abdullah appoint his deputy in good time at his own pace. Any other damages both irrevocably. Especially since Umno leaders agree Mahathir should stay on till October 2003.

It is not a date cast in stone. A leader who announces his retirement ahead of time, especially in Malay feudal society, would be forced out before long. Malaysia's first prime minister, Tunku Abdul Rahman, did it when he was in the same maelstrom as Dr Mahathir now is, and he left office a much embittered man for wanting to serve his nephew, the Yang Dipertuan Agong-to-be, wishing to his dying days he did not.

His chosen successor, Abdul Razak Hussein, had tired of waiting to succeed and moved brutally against his mentor. This cannot escape Mahathir, a student of history. He should have retired gracefully with the inevitable political coup de grace.

Abdullah, for all his likeable image, is a brilliant behind-the-scenes political operator, and brutal when the occasion demands it. He was secretary to the National Operations Council, which Abdul Razak formed to govern while the Tunku was marginalised and turned into a non-person.

He formed the Biro Tatanegara and which has returned to his bailiwick. By all accounts, he sidesteps every attempt by Mahathir to rein him in. He shows unaccustomed strength of character and steel.

Pak Lah's dilemma

So an inevitable confrontation between the two men is played out in slow motion, in which either or both can collapse in a pyrrhic victory. If Mahathir should win, he loses at once. He cannot go against Malay and Umno opinion and remain in office.

If Abdullah should win, he would despatch Mahathir even swifter into retirement, only to be challenged when he seeks to legitimise his position at the Umno party elections next year.

If the general election is held earlier, and Mahathir is a candidate, Abdullah's wings are clipped. If he is not, he would be forced out earlier than October 2003. And Tengku Razaleigh could challenge whoever stands for the Umno presidency.

This frightens the Umno oligarchy no end. He is untainted by the Mahathir years, he has been out of the cabinet since the mid-1980s, he is the symbol of the Malay cultural ground, he believes Anwar Ibrahim must be freed for Umno to survive, a view which gains ground in Umno.

Every mistake of Mahathir and Abdullah brings more support to the Razaleigh and Anwar factions in Umno. It is this group that is more secure in Umno. Najib knows his chances are better with Razaleigh. Abdullah must make his own bed. He does not have the luxury of letting others do it.

The bottled frustration in Umno, the fractured feudal leadership, the Malay cultural hurt with Umno over Anwar, all force Umno leaders to think the unthinkable: an Umno that could self-destruct if the underlying causes are not removed.

This is Abdullah's dilemma, intractable if he should name his deputy premier-in-waiting on July 18 or any date earlier than before he takes over as prime minister.