“The mistake you make, don't you see, is in thinking one can live in a corrupt society without being corrupt oneself. After all, what do you achieve by refusing to make money? You're trying to behave as though one could stand right outside our economic system. But one can't. One's got to change the system, or one changes nothing. One can't put things right in a hole-and-corner way, if you take my meaning.”

- George Orwell, ‘Keep the Aspidistra Flying’

I read this comment piece about game changers in 2017 and it was just overly optimistic. There is really no evidence that the opposition can overthrow this kleptocratic regime or if the variables mentioned in the articles would fall into place, thereby facilitating a Harapan victory.

This is not meant as an attack but rather a rejoinder that we are sailing through very dangerous waters and if we do not get our act together and move beyond simply cheerleading a disorganised opposition, we could end up in a whole world of hurt.

A couple of points that I think needs clearing up and the article merely glosses over.

1) Umno has always suffered electoral setbacks when faced with a cohesive opposition. As it is, the opposition is in disarray. PAS is a spoiler made worse by the reality that PKR needs them to remain politically relevant.

2) Recent by elections have demonstrated that Bersatu or at least the personalities behind them and Amanah have not gained traction with the demographic that keeps Umno in power.

3) The issue of corruption plays well with the urban demographic but again for various reasons has not become an issue with rural demographic. As I attempted to articulate in my piece about the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections -

“So if Umno delivers everything it says it will deliver, the cycle of complicity will continue. Disenfranchised people will continue voting for a regime which puts rice in their bowls. I am not talking about the urban class but rather those people who have depended on real power, federal power exercised corruptly for their benefit. That is the culture some people forget that we are dealing with. We nurtured this culture.”

4) Felda settlers unfortunately are not easily moved by corruption scandals only because they have weathered such scandals over the long Umno watch. If the Najib regime can find a way to assuage their grievances, then they will remain firmly in the Umno camp. And since Umno has always found a way to placate this demographic and keep a tight lid on anyone attempting to proselytise to them, I do not think that banking on them would be beneficial to Harapan.

5) The younger generation of Malay voters are a promising demographic but they are currently embroiled in a culture war that consumes most of their energy and effort.Young Malay oppositional types not only have to contend with the Umno regime but they also have to contend with the Islamic forces in this country with no help whatsoever from mainstream Malay political parties or non-Malay political parties who do not view them as part of a new deal but merely a specific racial demographic needed to win the throne of Putrajaya.

6) Race and religion. While my views on these issues are spread across various articles, I think there are deeper issues here than just Umno spreading racial and religious discord. I think that Umno is the main purveyor or racial and religious disharmony but I do think that what the opposition keeps running into a deep-rooted cultural and historical issues from within Pakatan that they have not dealt with hence are not able to come up with a convincing strategy to win over the majority Malay demographic.

7) Finally, the native voters of Sabah and Sarawak. I would not put much faith in them. They really do have problems that most peninsular Malaysians have no idea of.

Serving of the same manure

So in 2017, if we are lucky, will be a year-long serving of the same manure but with a different shovel. The stability of news cycles of political corruption, synchronised outrage and predictable blame shifting should be enough to sustain us to the next year.

However if we are unlucky, this could be the year where the centre cannot hold. Never has there been an Umno potentate who flaunts his wealth and plays dice with Islamic extremism as the current Umno poohbah.

Never has there been an Umno president who has pushed the boundaries when it comes to promulgating laws that grant him near unlimited powers. Never has there been an Umno potentate who has destroyed the internal mechanism of his own party which curtailed the unbridled expansion of individual power.

A long time ago, in another life, I wrote a paper explaining how the eventual eruption of conflict within the Malay community would make May 13 seem like a Christmas party. Nobody took the paper seriously because nobody believed that Umno hegemony would ever be at risk.

Decades later, with various Malay power groups and their proxies clamouring for power, the idea that there is coming reckoning within the Malay community does not seem farfetched. Indeed, every day in mosques, universities and all those other points of Malay social interaction, hidden from the apathetic eyes of non-Malay urban dwellers, there is a simmering discontent not only with Umno but the institution of royalty. Nobody openly talks about this, but it is there.

No matter how the government spins it, the economy is in bad shape. And when it gets bad enough, when the money runs out and when political bromides from either side isn’t enough to fill empty bellies, people on their own accord will take to the streets.

And these people will not be going out for some vague political ideology but because their kids are starving, or they cannot get jobs or just out of plain frustration. I have been to countries where this has happened. It is always spontaneous but there is always this sense that there is something in the air.

Ultimately this is the outcome that we may be facing. Not that the opposition wins Putrajaya but rather that the economy gets so bad that the disenfranchised Malay community will go to the streets and Malay power structures will devour each other attempting to gain control of the situation.

Add to this divergent emigrant population who have either been marginalised or coddled by the Umno state and you get a powder keg of possible racial and religious violence.

Now of course the current Umno prime minister does not think about such things. He is busy cycling some place in Australia while petrol prices rise and the rest of us worry about how to cope with mounting financial burdens in the coming year.

If you think that this piece is a downer, you could not be more wrong. I want things to change but to do that, the opposition must come to some hard decision. If they do not do so, then other factors will determine regime change in this country and this may very well turn Malaysia into a failed state.

S THAYAPARAN is Commander (Rtd) of the Royal Malaysian Navy.