In my opinion, BN is most likely to boycott the Penanti (N12) by-election primarily because it is a PKR stronghold and it will be yet another humiliating defeat for BN that has already suffered a string of by-election defeats since the last general elections. First let us look at the following statements:

1.The initial response by Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak on April 18 that the ruling coalition was mulling its options as the by-election was wasteful and BN wanted to cool down the overheated political climate.

2. The very next day the MCA President Ong Tee Keat said ‘We are prepared to give a walkover because we want to focus on the common good for the nation'. He further opined on his blog ‘We are too politicised to a point that we forget the meaning of democracy. It is not a show of strength or a tool to satisfy one's private agenda'.

3. On the very same day at a function organised by Raub Umno Youth, former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad said BN should contest the Penanti failing which ‘BN members and supporters in the area would be disappointed besides it would spoil the spirit and dignity of past party champions'.

4. Just prior to all these statements, former Selangor menteri besar Mohd Khir ‘Disneyland' Toyo opined in his blog that to contest the by-election would a waste of time and resources. Among his other incredulous pronouncements was a suggestion that Anwar contest the seat.

He lamented the frequency of by-elections that he said interfered with general administration and took away the focus of handling the economic situation.

5. Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim welcomed Najib's suggestion, saying he was happy if BN did not contest.

Najib's ‘finance' reason becomes untenable against the backdrop of questionable expenditure especially mark-ups and commissions paid for military hardware and other expenditure where no open tenders where called for and purchase prices were way above market prices.

BN's power grab in Perak, meanwhile, does little to ‘cool' the political climate and provides fodder for cynicism. Najib has done nothing to rein in the Umno factions who played the Pakatan state government against the Sultan when the former was just articulating their constitutional rights.

Ong Tee Keat led the campaign charge for the Permatang Pauh by-election on behalf of MCA where BN suffered a thumping defeat. He was more cautious for the Kuala Terrengganu by- elections when he said ‘This by election should not be used to gauge MCA's standing in the Chinese community'.

So it is utter hypocrisy to talk about ‘too much politics' when he has played up heated issues like ‘hudud ‘hoping to woo Chinese voters from the DAP.

Mahathir seems to directly contradict Najib on this issue. We would be very naive to think that Dr M and Najib did not meet up and confer on this before publicly giving dissenting views.

That's why I think that this is deliberate spin.

Remember Mathias Chang? He opined that BN should boycott the Permatang Pauh by-election, and when BN candidate Ariff Shah was trounced he lambasted Umno with a, ‘I told you so'.

I suspect Dr.M pretends to have a different opinion but in the end Najib prevails and all will say that Najib is indeed not beholden to Dr M.

With Mahathir in the picture after rejoining Umno, there has come an intelligent spin a la Mathias Chang so Pakatan be warned.

Khir Toyo doesn't seem to be coherent in his stand. While he considers Penanti a waste of time and resources, he had no qualms in calling for Elizabeth Wong to step down which would trigger a by-election at Bukit Lanjan, one that BN is also assured to lose.

His assertation that Anwar engineered the Penanti by-election for political gain does not hold water as he could have easily done so with Bukit Lanjan seeing that Elizabeth Wong had tendered her resignation. The Pakatan leadership, however, decided not to accept her resignation.

Many, especially from BN, are lamenting that we have had an unprecedented number of by-elections since the last general elections. Let us take a brief look at what triggered these by-elections.

Kuala Terrengganu, Bukit Gantang and Batang Ai - Death of the concerned assembly persons by natural causes, something all parties agree as an unavoidable factor. Having said that, I do not recall any other time in history when three assembly persons died within one year of their five- year term, do you ?

Perhaps the Health Ministry should consider a healthcare plan for all 222 assembly persons.

Permatang Pauh - Most citizens if not all knew that Dr Wan Azizah was Anwar's proxy in this constituency. The general elections was called on March 8, 2008 just a month or so before Anwar was eligible to contest.

This left him with no choice but to enter Parliament via a by-election after Wan Azizah stepped down. This could have been avoided if BN ‘accommodated' Anwar and allowed him to contest in the general elections. Instead they feigned surprise when the time came for a by-election at Permatang Pauh.

Bukit Selambau - Assembly person V Arumugam resigned on Feb 9, 2009 triggering a by-election. The reasons why Arumugam quit were appended to a statutory declaration which he wrote. In the declaration he stated that he no longer could stand the threats he had been receiving from certain parties besides alleged attempts from people claiming to represent BN who offered him up to RM5 million to cross over to the coalition.

He also demanded that past police reports he made on this be looked into. He also claimed that he and his family had also been harassed a number of times since last year's general election despite declining the offers.

The mainstream media and BN factions played up the theory that Arumugam was embroiled in a morality issue for allegedly marrying another woman through customary rites without divorcing his wife. While playing up the infidelity claims, the statutory declaration is ignored.

If indeed it was infidelity, why has his whole family disappeared? How can he fabricate police reports lodged soon after the general elections?

So there we have it - three by-elections due to ‘natural causes' and two that point to circumstances most likely created by BN.

In conclusion, I doubt very much that BN has the political courage to participate in the Penanti by-election and damage its image further. If BN does decide to participate, they will be taken to task for flip-flopping on initial statements and it will give more fodder to the perception that Najib is beholden to Dr M.

If they do not - as I predict - they are likely to covertly back independent candidates while making a spin that Anwar is power-hungry and that they (BN) have more important matters to attend.

Thus far, all independent candidates in the recent by-elections have lost their deposits without exception.

So if an independent (there may be more than one) manages to retain his or her deposit in Penanti due to covert BN support or the lack of choice for voters, BN will waste no time in pointing out the fact that this is the first time an independent has kept his/her deposit and therefore this means that Anwar's support has slipped.

I do not think that BN would be bothered over the accusation that they do not have the courage to face the people. That's the accusation they face in Perak and they seem unfazed.

If a bee sting does not hurt a thick-skinned buffalo, it won't worry too much about an ant bite.