Amid the debate on PAS' document on the Islamic state, one must wonder whether it was a smart move to win votes or one of the most worst political mistakes of all time. Forget the debate on the Islamic state; the real question on most people's minds is whether the Islamic state issue will win or lose votes in the next general election.

Why is PAS issuing the document at this time when it's not only divisive among the races but among the opposition? After such lengthy debate within the party why is the document still so unclear about key issues? The answer is can only be surmised as a PAS strategy of defense by offense.

Quite a few people forget that PAS, despite its long existence, has only been the main opposition for one term. Its gain in the last elections was due to many factors, but two of the biggest was Dr Mahathir Mohamad and the Anwar Ibrahim issue. Basically PAS, despite professing strength in

historical Islam, has gotten where it is today because of the negative image of Umno-BN.

Without Dr M as a whipping boy, and the Anwar issue at least 50 percent defused by now (come on, how many of us self-engrossed Malaysian really care about Anwar? The injustice represented in his case is a non-starter for the general, modern, apathetic voter), PAS is left with one bet: that it can ride the growing Islamisation even further. What I call 'more Islam' strategy.

However, there are problems with a such a strategy. Firstly, with a new prime minister whose Islamic credentials is impeccable, PAS' election message is muddled. When your message is similar to a competitor, chances are your message will get diluted, no matter how you try to differentiate yourself. In politics, an unclear message is worst than having no message.

Secondly, it is clear that Islamisation is not moving in the same direction as it was before. The Sept 11 World Trade Center bombing has transformed the Islamic world. While Islamic religious consciousness is still on an upswing, it is clear that the traditional fundamental Islam adopted by the Taliban is on the wane.

The vast majority of the Islamic world has rejected the form of Islam that advocates rigid interpretation of Islamic text. They yearn for a progressive Islam and this is the message that PAS has not been quick to adapt to.

While the ulama, who live and breathe the religion may cry out for tradition, most Muslims have to live in a real world that cries for relevance. This is the message that PAS failed to deliver. This failure is why Umno and BN component parties have jumped all over the Islamic state document.

I believe that PAS' strategy is a colossal election mistake. It has fallen into a classic case of political hubris: believing its own propaganda just as Umno-BN had done before. It believed that its success was entirely its own and not the failure of Umno-BN. It underestimated the rest of the opposition and took its allies for granted. Mark my words, PAS will surely lose ground in the next election.