It is highly unlikely that PAS will lose the upcoming Manek Urai by-election. After all, this is a seat which PAS has won five out of six times since 1986.
It lost this seat in the 2004 general election as a result of the Abdullah Ahmad Badawi ‘tsunami’ effect which swept through the national electorate and nearly resulted in Barisan Nasional winning back control of the Kelantan state legislature.
A repeat of that performance is unlikely. The electorate, having been ‘fooled’ by the promises of Pak Lah, is not likely to give the same benefit of the doubt to Najib Abdul Razak.
There are no signs that the Malay vote has shifted considerably one way or the other since the 2008 general elections or that Najib’s recent spike in his approval ratings – according to a recent poll by the Merdeka Centre – will provide the 8 percent to 10 percent swing which BN needs to recapture this seat.
Much more likely is the scenario where PAS wins this by-election with a reduced majority of less than 1,000 votes (compared to a majority of 1,352 in 2008).