Even before Isa Samad was named Barisan Nasional candidate for the Bagan Pinang state by-election, already there were talks that BN would retain the seat, as it had been its stronghold all the while.

Now, with Isa being the candidate most favoured by the people of Bagan Pinang, there is no doubt that BN can retain the seat without much of a problem.

Nevertheless, the ruling coalition is not taking the by-election lightly.

The question now is, how big will the majority be this time for BN, and who among the voters will determine whether a candidate wins big or otherwise.

For political analyst Cheah See Kian, non-Malay voters are crucial in the by-election.

isa samad bagan pinang 290909 02 "To me, the decider will be the non-Malay voters, the 20 percent Indian and 10 percent Chinese voters. The Malay votes will likely be split, but I forsee that it might be a 60 percent advantage for Isa," he said.

Isa, 60, a local who served as Negeri Sembilan menteri besar for 22 years since 1982, is facing state PAS commissioner Zulkefly Mohamad Omar, of Lenggeng.

There are 13,664 registered voters - 9,060 regular voters and 4,604 postal voters - the majority being Malay voters who represent 62.8 per cent, followed by Indian (20.7 percent), Chinese (11 percent) and others (5.5 percent).

Cheah said Umno had about 2,300 members who are registered voters in the constituency and the BN was expected to garner between 5,000 and 6,000 of the total Malay votes, as compared to about 4,000 Malay votes for PAS.

Even the postal votes of about 4,600 is considered a safe bet for BN. Non-Malay votes are important as previous trends in several other by-elections had shown that they were in favour of the opposition pact.

"On paper, for BN to win the seat, they need to maintain 60 percent of the Malay support and at the same time, need to gain at least 15 percent of the total Chinese and Indian votes, plus a majority support from the postal voters," he said.

Opposition to target non-Malay support

Therefore, Cheah anticipates that the opposition alliance Pakatan Rakyat would press hard on the non-Malay voters to turn the tide against the BN, particularly as Isa enjoys popular support and was well-known as "a grassroots man".

azlan "At least, I think the opposition alliance will push for 90 percent support from the non-Malays by using national issues such as the cow head, to swing the votes, knowing very well that other methods are not likely to be workable after learning that even among the local non-Malays, Isa is a well-liked person," he said.

However, for another political analyst Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, it is not a problem for BN to retain this mixed constituency even with only the Malay votes as the previous result had shown that BN won the seat without much non-Malay support.

"From a political point of strategy, you can't say it openly as you need every single vote. However, the fact from the previous election showed that BN had actually won with a majority of about 2,400, due to the strong support from the Malay voters while most of the Indian and the Chinese votes went to PAS," he said.

Sivamurugan anticipates seeing a different scenario in this by-election unlike previous by-elections as the BN, particulary the Teluk Kemang Umno division, is giving a very solid and united support to the candidate.

"For the first time, the Umno division is not quarreling about the candidate or succumbing to factional politics. Instead, there is a solid and united front in their show of support for Isa," he said, adding that the situation would work to BN's advantage.

Therefore, he said, the opposition would most likely go all out to get as much as possible, the non-Malay support.

Sympathy and friendship

BN insiders however, believe that it would be tougher this time for the opposition alliance to have more non-Malay support as some non-Malay voters might vote Isa out of sympathy and friendship.

"If that happens, a swing of between five and 10 percent support from the non-Malays towards BN would be good enough to help BN retain the seat. Don't tell me that Isa does not have Chinese or Indian friends there...

bagan pinang by-election nomination 031009 candidate shake hand frontimage "In the last election, the candidate was not Isa but in this by-election, Isa is contesting. Some of Isa's Chinese and Indian supporters are likely to vote for him as a token of their appreciation.

"Even if it is only a five percent swing, it is already good enough," said the insider who declined to be identified.

Meanwhile, state DAP chief Loke Siew Fook said in the previous result, about 60 percent of the non-Malay votes went to the opposition but in this by-election, they were targeting about 70 percent.

"From the political strategy, it only makes sense to get more non-Malay votes as judging from the previous results and trends, the Malay votes are split.

"Even as we are working towards getting support from all races, we still need to garner as much as possible, the non-Malay votes as this can change the tide," he said.

The Bagan Pinang seat fell vacant, following the death of BN's Azman Mohammad Noor on Sept 4. Isa takes on Zulkefly in the by-election on Oct 11. - Bernama