As most of the 24 Perak marginal state seats are in Malay majority areas, the Malay electorate’s support in the next state election will be vital for both Pakatan Rakyat and Barisan Nasional.

Pakatan’s menteri besar Nizar Jamaluddin (right ) admitted last month that he and the coalition found it hard to enter Malay rural areas to address accusations of being a boneka (puppet) and penderhaka (traitor) levelled against him.

Nizar was accused of being a puppet for non-Malay dominated DAP, and for being traitorous to the Perak sultan for refusing the royal order to vacate his post.

This failure sent an alarming message to Pakatan, as they estimated the popularity of the coalition within Malay rural areas to have dropped 7-8 percent from the level of 40 percent that they gained in the last general election.

 Slide arrested

Pakatan leaders claim they have arrested the slide in support as well as successfully addressed the boneka and penderhaka accusations.

Perak PAS election director Asmuni Awi believes that the return of Malay votes to Umno in last May’s Bukit Gantang by-election will not be repeated.

His analysis was that the Bukit Gantang by-election results were due to two reasons: one being Umno fielding a local candidate and the second that the allegations hurled by Umno had impact in Malay rural areas. However, those issues were not a problem now.

“We have explained to the Malay rural people, they now understand the situation and know who are behind it.”

Meanwhile, PKR state vice-president Chang Lih Kang ( left ) estimated that some Malay votes will swing back to Umno but the amount is not sizable.

However, he chose not to be over-optimistic as he felt that Umno will still continue playing up the boneka allegation to attack Nizar and PAS.

“This is an issue of perception, it will be very hard for us to clear it,” he explained.

Minority votes still crucial

For non-Malays, Chang speculated that Pakatan could win 70 percent of Chinese votes and 50 percent of the Indian vote.

Non-Malay voters can play a crucial role in some Malay marginal seats where PAS lost with a slim majority. These include Pengkalan Baru, Kubu Gajah and Selama.

DAP Tebing Tinggi state assemblyperson Ong Boon Piow said that they felt that the Chinese and Indian are still leaning toward Pakatan when they meet with the grassroots.

However, Pakatan still face some risks. Chang worried that Indian voters might be swayed by the ‘new prime minister’ effect as the new Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak is making great efforts to woo Indians.

Perak will stabilise after the re-election

When asked about Pakatan’s chances if there was a state election, Asmuni was confident Pakatan could regain power. He also believes PAS could win more seats and help the coalition achieve a comfortable two-thirds majority to ensure stability.

Chang was however more conservative, believing the majority would be a slim one. He even estimated it could be as slim as just one or two seats.

His estimates were supported by the latest Merdeka Centre survey . The independent study shows that BN’s Zambry Abdul Kadir has a 43 percent approval rating to Pakatan’s Nizar at 46 percent.

Zambry’s ( right ) support base draws mostly from Malays and half of the Indian electorate. Nizar’s supporters are mostly Chinese, half of the Indian voters and one-third of the Malay electorate.

Yet Chang believes that even if Pakatan wins with a slim majority, Perak’s turmoil would be eased and the state stabilised.

His opinion is that BN would not re-attempt to seize power the same way it did after the last election, via persuading candidates to defect, as it had provoked negative sentiments among the people.

“Pakatan will be more careful in selecting candidates to ensure that they have quality and are able to face pressure,” he added.

Even if BN won at the end of the day, Pakatan will accept the results because it is the choice of the people, Chang said.

Pakatan won Perak with a three-seat majority in the 2008 general election, with Pakatan winning 31 seats to BN’s 28. However, BN managed to win over three Pakatan state assemblypersons in February last year, causing the fall of Pakatan’s state government.

See also: Battle for 24 marginal seats