A keen contest is expected in 29 seats during the Sarawak state elections, according to a prediction by Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (Unimas) political scientist Faizal Syam Hazis.

NONE Faizal ( left ) believes that all 15 Chinese-majority seats, seven Iban-majority seats, three Malay-Melanau-majority seats, two Bidayuh-majority seats and two Orang Ulu-majority seats “might swing either way”.

Primarily, the disgruntlement with the state government stems mostly from the more affluent urban areas but historically, rural areas have trended towards the opposition due to the power of the candidate’s personality or local issues, he said.

Faizal expects the biggest opposition gains to be made in the 15 Chinese-majority seats, adding the 2006 ‘revolt’ against BN in the Kuching area is believed to have spread throughout the state.

“Although there are a few ‘safe’ Chinese seats in the Miri area... I won’t be surprised if the opposition makes inroads,” he said during a public forum in Petaling Jaya on the Sarawak elections organised by independent opinion pollster Merdeka Centre.

He notes that interestingly, based on 2006 election results, there are rural Malay-Melanau-majority seats that are vulnerable as well, citing the case of Sadong Jaya , Beting Maro and Saribas .

BN ‘dams up’ support

He cites problems with the incumbent candidates causing them to be not well-liked as well as PAS’ steady rate of penetration, initially under the guise of dakwah (proselytising).

“I expect these incumbents to be replaced,” said Faizal.

But in the case of Iban, Bidayuh and Orang Ulu seats that are vulnerable for the BN, Faizal attributes this to local issues and personalities.

He points out that in 2006, BN almost lost the rural seat of Belaga , which is the location of the Bakun Dam that had brought much misery to many native tribes.

In a three-cornered fight between BN, an independent and a Sarawak National Party (Snap) candidate, the combined opposition votes was 685 votes more than what the BN candidate polled.

The Belaga constituency covers about 15,000 square kilometres, which is about the size of peninsula Malaysia’s largest state Pahang, but only has about 6,000 voters.

Tough sell to rural voters

Faizal also warned that the rural Bengoh seat, which BN won with a comfortable majority in 2006, was also likely to see substantial protest votes because of the Bengoh dam projects .

Despite the ripe opportunities, Faizal cautioned that it is still an uphill task for less established opposition parties to win in the rural seats, which make up the 59 out of a total 71 state legislative assembly seats.

“DAP didn’t make inroads overnight. This is a lesson that PKR and PAS have to take home. They have been contesting in Sarawak since 1978... You can’t expect PKR to win 10 or 15 seats over three or four elections,” he said.

Moreover, Faizal said ground reports suggest that the majority of four-wheeled drive vehicles, boats and helicopters were currently out of reach for the opposition.

NONE “There are claims that boats and helicopters are now being rented from Philippines and Indonesia because they are none left in East Malaysia,” he said.

Another speaker, Universiti Putra Malaysia’s professor Jayum Anak Jawan ( right ), concurred that parties who only recently emerged in Sarawak are more likely to falter.

“This is not to say that the rural voters are uninformed, but they are not so well politically educated. They are simple people who don’t interpret or read between the lines. They take things at face value,” he said.

Church ‘apolitical’

To a question from the floor, both Faizal and Jayum agreed to a certain degree that the federal government’s handling of the Al Kitab controversy was unlikely to make much of an impact in the April 16 polls for this Christian majority state.

This was because the issue was mainly being debated by the urban Christians and not the rural populace who form the bulk of the voters.

Jayum recounted how his dialogues which church leaders in the past had revealed that many choose to be apolitical and do not seek to overtly influence their congregation’s voting choice.

“I ask them why aren’t they doing anything when their congregation is being held to ransom at every election for basic necessities?

“They say that they are more concerned with the afterworld and that they respect the separation of state and religion,” he said.

Faizal said that the lack of prominent Christian leaders in the opposition front, save for PKR state chief Baru Bian, would also mean that the opposition was less likely to benefit from the Al Kitab row.

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