Malaysiakini

GE13 prediction true only if free and fair polls

your say'Dr Wong Chin Huat's analysis is not so accurate. It was based on 2008 tsunami results which nobody expected.'

Opposition may take 100 federal seats in GE13

Rick Teo: The BN government will try to rig the election, but there is a limit that they can rig. They will be able to rig and win if the votes are lost by a small margin. Their postal votes can nullify Pakatan Rakyat votes if the seat is lost by one or two thousand.

If Pakatan wins by a large margin then it will be difficult for BN to manipulate the votes. For example, if Pakatan wins by a margin of 5,000 votes then it would be difficult for the votes to be offset by postal votes, which may constitute only about 2,000 votes.

Anonymous_4031: Why only 100 seats and not 140? The blunders of the BN government in the Bersih issue, Teoh Beng Hock's death, Altantuya Shaariibuu's death, Jais' raid on Damasara Utara Methodist Church, locking up six PSM members, the Scorpene submarines purchase, the Perak takeover, the Tung Shin Hospital tear-gas incident, the PKFZ case, the slashing of fuel subsidies and the racist civil servants are some of the issues that will sway voters towards Pakatan.

The downgrading of US creditworthiness by Standard and Poor's from AAA to AA+ affect the whole world. When the people suffer, they invariably blame the government, rightly or wrongly.

Quigonbond: What a piece of great news after days of stock market drubbing. With 12 seats short, there's even more reason for Pakatan to suck up their ego, idiosyncracies, dogma and differences and unite all party machinery, double their effort, and give BN a good run for their money. Truly, it's now or never.

Dark Archon: All this may happen assuming the condition is ideal, that is the election is free and fair. And, that, is a big assumption. Learning from its defeats, I'm sure BN is working overtime to ensure its victories, especially in all Pakatan seats.

Instant Indonesian-turn-citizen voters, postal voters and what not, BN is going use everything in its arsenal to cling on to power. Even if it means selling out the country to foreigners, and resorting to violence and make full use of all government agencies, including the PDRM and military, to maintain its grip on this country.

Anonymous 7: If only this can come true. It will come true, if we are assured of fair and clean elections without the biometric systems and ‘new' citizens added to the electoral role, and whatever else may be brewing now. Let us hope that the truth will prevail.

Temenggong: Wong Chin Huat is hallucinating. Neither the Chinese nor the Indians are driven to give such unequivocal support to either side, considering the performance of Pakatan in the last three years.

There are 25 marginal seats held by BN. But there are also 35 other marginal seats held by Pakatan. Did Wong consider this? Without a major swing in East Malaysia, there is no hope for Pakatan. So it is too soon for Pakatan to salivate.

Ghkok: If there's an absence of free, fair and clean elections, then surely the chance of a bigger BN win is higher. If the voter list is increasingly being padded with non-citizens, phantoms, etc, and postal votes are increasing by the day, surely the BN win is also likely to be increasing by the day. No?

I think it's best not to make predictions about the results. It's best to concentrate efforts to put increasing pressure on the EC (Election Commission) to implement the eight demands.

My prediction is this - the higher the chance of EC implementing the eight demands (or some of it), the higher will be the chance of victory for pakatan.

Docs: Unfortunately, I disagree with Dr Wong Chin Huat that Bersih 2.0 may be the ‘factor' in Pakatan increasing its seat count in GE13.

I think if Pakatan at this moment manages to increase its seat count, they have Umno to thank for. Umno's mismanagement of Bersih, mismanagement of the economy, mismanagement of racial and religious issues, mismanagement of corruption, mismanagement of the judiciary, etc.

In short, Umno-BN's mismanagement of every aspect of the government has increased Pakatan's chances.

Isana: This analysis is not so accurate. It was based on 2008 tsunami results which nobody expected. Now BN is very well-prepared, like registering foreign voters, increase in postal votes, and gerrymandering of voters.

The impact of Bersih 2.0 is not good enough. Pakatan should be hard pressed to deny BN their customary two-thirds majority. Putrajaya looks unlikely for Pakatan as long as the election is not free and fair.

Werewolves: What made the Malays vote against the BN last time is due to rising cost of living, especially the price of petrol. If BN don't raise the price of petrol and diesel too much and control the price of other goods, most of them will vote BN again.

The anger of the Indians has subsided somewhat. No more temple demolition issue. So some will vote for BN. The only votes loss will be the Chinese votes. I say about half of the Malay votes that went to Pakatan will switch back to BN, about one-third of the Indian votes that went to Pakatan will also return to BN.

About 15 percent more Chinese will vote for Pakatan. All in all, Pakatan should be happy to get 60 seats this time.

Azizi Khan: If the Indians keep harping about representation and blindly complaining about PKR, this won't happen.

If Malays are more concerned with people converting and less concerned with corruption and crimes, this won't happen. If Chinese are concerned about loss of business from their previous connections through MCA and BN, this won't happen.

But together, with one single effort, even with BN and Umno cheating at every conceivable fashion, this would be possible. Let's give it a shot. Bbesides what do we have to lose, right? It's only our dignity and self respect.

Inspektor Klueso: Wong's predictions are predicated on a clean election - which is a fantasy in Malaysia. If such an unlikely scenario (clean election without all the vote rigging-buying) exists, BN would have lost in 2008.

Dynasties, no matter how powerful, come and go. History always repeats itself. It's just a matter of how long before Umno bites the dust, just like the many tyrannies that have come and gone before them.

Multi Racial: This is not good enough. Pakatan has to work harder to win the federal government. It is not about Najib Razak or Muhyiddin Yassin. They are all the same and will never change.

Pakatan, especially PAS and PKR, have to work harder in rural areas to win a few more seats. There need to be attention on Sabah and Sarawak as they are the key states to decide who form the federal government.

Danny Lazaroo: Mark my words - the key to GE13 are Johor, Sarawak and Sabah. If any two of them end up in Pakatan's hand, or if Pakatan can gain significant headway in each of those states, GE13 will most likely be theirs to lose.

As of now though, I have no idea whether Pakatan has made significant strides. Sarawak, I guess they kind of have, but they'll need to work very hard in Sabah and Johor.

 


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