The country's 11 ^th general election tomorrow can be seen as a three-front battle. DAP will be taking on the MCA and Gerakan in seats where Chinese voters form at least 60% of the electorate.

Keadilan, meanwhile has the unenviable task of slugging it out against all major Barisan Nasional (BN) component parties in seats where Malay voters are at between 40% - 60%. Dark horse PAS will be doing battle against Umno in seats where Malay voters number over 60%.

DAP's fortunes hinges on its gamble to win back Chinese voters by distancing itself from Barisan Alternatif.(BA). By strongly opposing PAS' proposal for a 'strong' theocratic state and lambasting MCA and Gerakan for bowing to Umno's 'soft' version of an Islamic Malaysia, DAP hopes to present itself as the only political vehicle for a secular democratic Malaysia.

DAP hopes to swing Chinese voters back to the opposition, although this will be at the expense of Malay votes in gained through its alliance with BA in the 1999 general election.

With nine Parliament seats in hand, after the recent defection of Nibong Tebal MP Goh Kheng Huat to Keadilan, DAP hopes to pick up seats that it lost narrowly (with less than a 10% majority) in 1999. There are nine such seats.

They stand a good chance in four of these Bukit Bendera , Ipoh Timor , Ipoh Barat and PJ Utara where they are fielding strong candidates with Chinese voters forming the bulk of the constituency.

However, if Chinese voters fail to swing back to the DAP, and if at the same time they lose their support from Malay voters, DAP could be left with fewer than five seats in Parliament. Among those who could lose their seat is party secretary-general Kerk Kim Hock, whose Kota Melaka seat has over 30% Malay voters.

Anwar's assault

Needless to say, tomorrow's election could prove to be decisive for DAP. Success will vindicate the political leadership and the anti-Islamic state strategy of the party's chairperson Lim Kit Siang. However, failing to regain lost ground will leave the party in the political wilderness, without the backing of either Chinese or Malay voters.

DAP has also chosen to cross swords with Keadilan and the unregistered Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) - standing in Sungai Siput and Subang under the Keadilan logo - in order to protect its niche among opposition voters and prevent the growth of the rival parties

If DAP candidates lose out to those from Keadilan in three-cornered fights, the latter may eclipse the former as the country's second-largest opposition party besides possibly spurring more DAP supporters to switch camps.

In the last election, Islamic party PAS profited from the detention and assault on former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim . It swept Terengganu and half of the Kedah parliamentary seats, while retaining Kelantan. The party also made inroads into Perak, Pahang and Selangor.

This time round, much depends on whether the Anwar factor still holds sway in the Malay heartland and if other issues , such as the withdrawal of financial assistance to Islamic religious schools ( Sekolah Agama Rakyat ), influence the mind of voters. PAS could also benefit from infighting within Umno, especially in Perlis and Kedah.

On the other hand, Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, with his credentials as an Islamic scholar and his populist measures including the crackdown on corruption as well as his softer approach to his political opponents, may persuade the middle ground to come back to Umno.

Declining support

Any swing among Malay voters will have a dramatic impact on Umno and PAS. If PAS manages to change the hearts of just 5% of voters in constituencies it lost with majorities under 10%, the Islamic party will pick up an additional 11 parliamentary seats - one each in Perlis, Kedah, Perak and Kuala Lumpur, three in Pahang and four in Selangor.

This will bring their total haul in Parliament to 36. And by working with Keadilan in BA they may have more than Umno's 47 seats. Along with control of the Perlis, Kedah Kelantan and Terengganu state governments, there will arise a serious question of Malay representation.

On the other hand, a large number of PAS constituencies were also won by margins of under 10% at the last election. A 5% swing back to Umno, will see PAS losing 13 parliament seats in Kedah and Terengganu. A 10% swing will leave PAS with just 10 parliament seats.

The onus is on Umno to regain lost ground and woo the support of the Malays inasmuch by convincing them that the Anwar factor no longer holds ground. Every Malay vote lost to the opposition will increase the pressure on Umno to analyse the reasons for its declining support.

This may pave the way for new policies to modernise and revamp the party, a re-look at its approach to Malay issues affecting the heartland and steps to release Anwar currently serving a jail term for sodomy and abuse of power.

BN is also very much against the growth of a Malay-led multiracial party that can appeal to all the country's major races. While they have lost out to PAS in seats with a high concentration of Malay votes, and to DAP, in seats with a large majority of Chinese voters, BN has won in most mixed constituencies, which form the bulk of seats in Peninsula Malaysia.

Final battle?

PAS will be happy with any gains or even maintaining its status quo. They will claim a mandate for their policies, although Keadilan will counter claim that voters are still concerned about Anwar.

A PAS victory will also consolidate its position within the opposition, further isolating DAP and putting pressure on Keadilan to accept PAS' Islamic leadership and policies. It will also mean that non-Muslims may have begun considering a nation where Islam plays a more significant role.

Keadilan enters tomorrow's general election fighting for its life on all fronts - within the party, within the opposition and against Umno.

Since its inception in 1999, they have lost several senior leaders including their former deputy president Chandra Muzafar and vice-president Marina Yusoff. Later, the leadership's decision to merge with Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM) caused a major rift within the party, leading to the withdrawal of the powerful Abim (Malaysian Islamic Youth Movement) faction as one of the driving forces within the party.

More recently, in a well publicised pre-election move, several key Keadilan leaders defected back to Umno, bringing back haunting memories of Semangat 46's slow capitulation and return to Umno

Keadilan is also a victim of opposition party rivalry with both PAS and DAP. The latter two are reluctant to allow Keadilan to contest in seats where they have a shot at winning. PAS has argued that it has a superior party machinery and a more acceptable brand name among Muslim voters.

Moreover, the defection of a few Keadilan leaders back to Umno, has allowed PAS to raise the question of loyalty as an argument against supporting Keadilan candidates. PAS also refused to support PRM president Dr Syed Husin Ali's candidacy in Kota Bharu, forcing the latter's ignominious withdrawal.

Keadilan, on the other hand, accuses DAP of reneging on its promise to give way to it to avoid three-cornered fights. The party had in turn not fielded its candidates in the constituencies where veteran DAP leaders Lim Kit Siang and Karpal Singh are standing.

Public sympathy

Key Keadilan leaders have spent two of the last five years being detained under the Internal Security Act (ISA) on accusations of attempting to overthrow the government. Three have been told by the Election Commission (EC) that they cannot contest tomorrow and others cleared to stand may be later disqualified if they are convicted on charges currently pending against them.

While BN will probably profit the most from the three-cornered fights, Keadilan will be aiming to prove that it is able to win more votes than DAP, in order to 'reserve' the seat for the next election.

Keadilan will no doubt be banking on public sympathy for Anwar besides its appeal as a progressive, democratic, multiethnic party. Three Keadilan candidates have received the endorsement of the Malaysian Trade Union Congress (MTUC) which represents over 500,000 workers. It also has the support of several non-governmental organisation.

Keadilan says its aim is to pick up at least half of the eight seats it lost by majority of under 10% in 1999, while at the same beating the DAP in triangular fights.

Should Keadilan fail, many fear it will go the way of Semangat '46 and spell the demise Anwar as a factor in the Malaysian public consciousness.

It will also be a blow to PAS, who needs a coalition partner which can win over the votes of non-Muslims in mixed constituencies.