'Opposition win means short- term pain, long-term gain'
Pakatan Rakyat policies will cause a “painful” shock for the stock market but the successful implementation will have long-term positive impact on the whole economy, TA Research said.
“If these measures are able to produce the intended or promised results, it would be long-term positive for the economy as well as the capital market.
“While we reckon that the current administration is mindful of many of these shortfalls, the progress in addressing some of these issues so far was not compelling,” it said in a report.
However, it noted, a strong mandate for BN would allow Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak to “crack the whip to quash internal revolts against (the) change process and produce good results”.
This would be a positive for the economy, it said, as the Najib-led Economic Transformation Programme had driven tremendous growth in private investment in the country.
Terming the general election the biggest risk of the second quarter, the research house nonetheless expects the BN to win 120 to 125 seats in Parliament, leaving it with a slimmer majority compared to 2008, while status quo is expected in Selangor and Perak, with Negri Sembilan hanging in the balance and could spring surprises.
“A narrow win for Barisan Nasional (BN) is likely to lead to a leadership challenge within Umno as some old guards are already raising the ante for heads to roll if the victory is less inspiring than 2008.
“Thus, do not expect a major run-up in the index although anticipate the all-time high of 1,699 being taken out,” it said.
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