ANALYSIS TELUK INTAN After eight days of intense campaigning for the Teluk Intan by-election, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the campaign themes for both the DAP and BN have found very little traction in winning over non-supporters.

Many had expected a unique battle - with BN fielding a Chinese candidate at a time when Umno’s dominance seemingly dwarfs their BN partners, and DAP fielding a Malay candidate after constantly being accused of being too Chinese-centric.

With four days to polling day, voter loyalty is likely to see status quo, with the ethnic Malay candidate attracting most of the Chinese votes and the ethnic Chinese candidate getting staunch support from Malays.

DAP’s message that fielding young Malay candidate Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud would break racial barriers and spur “new politics” has found very few takers apart from those who have already thrown their weight behind the DAP in the general election last May.

Even with its candidate donning a scarf at Malay heartland campaign trails and appearing in a regular DAP garb at daytime events addressing a Chinese crowd, some racial barriers remain intact in Teluk Intan.

Its aim to raise Malay votes from the 25 percent won in the last general election is unlikely to be met as Dyana has not found overwhelming support in the Malay heartland.

The lacklustre appeal among Malays can be illustrated through the turnout at two separate events on Sunday night - one in Teluk Intan town and another in Malay heartland Kampung Durian Sebatang.

More than 5,000 people - mostly Chinese - thronged the first venue, while just over 200 people came to Kampung Durian Sebatang.

This despite the fact PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim was making his Teluk Intan campaigning debut in the village.

Dyana’s ceramah in front of Malay crowds mostly takes place in PAS operation centres, in small groups, while the bumper crowds are mostly in Chinese new villages and polling districts.

So, while it remains highly doubtful if Dyana’s candidacy would enable DAP to win over more Malay constituents, the party seems to have kept its Chinese support despite its candidate being a Malay.

The Chinese community in Teluk Intan are minimally swayed by Dyana’s candidature, and remain fully supportive of the party symbol that they affectionately call the “rocket”.

However, there are also signs that some elderly Chinese voters might return to the BN fold this time around as there is no possibility of a government change from the result of this by-election.

The older voters are well acquainted with Mah’s service track record in the constituency, and this could cause a minor concern for DAP.

This would mean that the party would need to rely on the return of young outstation voters to keep its Chinese support base.

Umno has Mah's back

Similarly, Mah can count on support from the predominantly Malay community in the Changkat Jong state constituency, which looks to remain firm behind BN, or Umno, in particular.

Changkat Jong is one of two state constituencies in Teluk Intan that PAS lost to an Umno representative in the last general election.

Most of the top Umno ministers and state leaders, including Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin have come down to the villages here to campaign for Mah, although Mah himself did not join them for most programmes.

This has solidified BN’s seemingly strong Malay support base, but Teluk Intan remains a Chinese-majority seat.

Mah has done little except from the occasional walkabouts in the Teluk Intan town itself to reach out to this demographics.

This is in contrast to his travels into the estates to meet Indian voters, who make up 19 percent of the Teluk Intan electorate, to ambiguous results.

In the last general election, majority of Indians constituents voted for DAP, earning DAP’s late MP Seah Leong Peng an overwhelming majority of more than 7,600 votes.

Similarly, BN’s promise that it would take care of Teluk Intan’s welfare came with 'after-election' disclaimers, thus watering down the appeal and not likely to sway fence-sitters.

Local boy appeal

The party's apparent aversion to conducting large-scale ceramah, too, has made it very difficult for the party itself to gauge public support towards veteran Mah, who still claims he is the underdog.

If there is anything Mah has going for him is his status as a local boy and years of service as a one-term assemblyperson and two-term Teluk Intan parliamentarian.

The local boy strategy, along with BN's promises of business development, could result in a minor swing of votes among senior Chinese businessmen and voters back to BN and DAP would need the outstation voters to come back to vote to counter this.

However, this is not quite enough to shake the status quo, which currently places DAP in the front seat of a seat it won with a commanding majority back in 2013.

It is BN that will need to make up ground, and for that to happen, the ruling coalition’s campaign is expected to intensify greatly over the next few days.

If Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak comes down to campaign for BN in Teluk Intan before polling on Saturday, it might signal a shift in sentiments on the ground that would give BN a genuine chance of peeping a win.

However, DAP, having placed this by-election as a referendum for new politics, will also need more than a simple victory to consider its campaign successful.

RAM ANAND is a member of the Malaysiakini team.