TELUK INTAN A survey has shown that DAP's decision to field a Malay candidate will earn it more Malay votes in the Teluk Intan by-election - but its majority will be reduced as a result of lower voter turnout.

The survey by UCSI Poll Research Centre showed that DAP candidate Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud will command 28.3 percent of the Malay votes to BN's 58.75 percent, while eight percent more are undecided.

"It is an improvement of about five to six percent (for DAP from the 13th general election) from among roughly 20,000 Malay voters," said UCSI Poll Research Centre founder Ngerng Miang Hong (left).

For the Indian votes, 43 percent are in favour of Dyana while 44 percent are in favour of BN's Mah Siew Keong with another 13 percent undecided.

A total of 400 respondents were involved in the survey. However, those polled  in Teluk Intan between May 24 and 26 were only Malay and Indian voters.

'Majority halved'

Ngerng said as for Chinese voters, a focus group was conducted and it was found that their voting pattern had not changed much from the 13th general election with about 75 percent in favour of the opposition.

He said based on the Malay and Indian votes from the survey and the Chinese voting pattern from 2008, DAP is projected to win by a 3,000-vote majority if the turnout is at 70 percent.

This margin is significantly less than the 7,313-vote majority DAP garnered in 2013, when the turnout was a high 80.4 percent.

The survey projected the turnout for the Teluk Intan by-election to be at 69 percent.

Ngerng said DAP's reduction of votes due to a lower turnout would be because most Chinese voters, who are more favourable of the party, are working outstation.

"The turnout rate may not be even in terms of race and the proportion for and against (a party) is also different among the races. It is not a linear change.

"Chinese (voters) have many members working outside the town whereas most Malay families stay together," he said.

'Low turnout BN's hope'

He said there was only a "small" chance for Mah to win the by-election by a few hundred votes - if the turnout was low enough.

From the focus group, Ngerng said, the fact Mah could become a minister if he wins the by-election only helped marginally with regard to Chinese voters.

"Our survey showed that half of the respondents believe it (becoming minister) can draw some votes but that will not reverse the outcome of the election.

He added the focus group showed respondents who thought Mah's personality and background were his trump cards, while those who put more emphasis on party lines and ideology favoured Dyana.

However, for every voter who prefers a candidate's personality and background, there would be five more who would vote according to party and ideology, thus giving Dyana an edge.

The research also found hudud to be a non-issue for non-Malay voters, with only 12 percent stating they were concerned about it.

"Voters were more concerned about inflation, followed by other issues such as national economic development, security, drainage and waste disposal and abuse of power by the authorities," said Ngerng.

He said when respondents were asked about their primary source of information, 90 percent said they relied on newspapers while about 50 percent relied on the Internet and television.

The Teluk Intan by-election was triggered following the death of its MP Seah Leong Peng. Saturday is polling day.