After being sacked from the deputy prime minister position, Muhyiddin Yassin survived politically by retaining his Umno deputy president post. This powerful position, however, is being eroded.

Firstly, his successor and Umno vice-president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi replaced him as chair at crucial party meetings.

Secondly, the Umno supreme council has stripped away the party number two another privilege - he will not be invited to officiate at the party wings’ assemblies - a break from convention.

Is Muhyiddin a frog trapped in a boiling pot but has no awareness to flee?

For Penang Institute fellow Wong Chin Huat, the answer is "No".

Muhyiddin is aware of the danger of being chopped, but lacks the courage to fight back, he opined.

Wong offered an analogy of a sauna room to explain Muhyiddin’s dilemma.

“Muhyiddin is not a frog. He certainly knows that he is being cooked.

“He is trapped in a sauna, and knows that the room has changed. But he does not dare break down the door because he is not wearing any pants.

“What Muhyiddin fears is whether he will be decimated outside the room… Surely others will attack you out there, but it’s better to be buried within the party,” the political analyst told Malaysiakini .

Dare not name Najib

After being ousted from the cabinet, Muhyiddin has fiercely attacked 1MDB, urging party members to voice out.

But he did not pinpoint the root cause - calling his ex-boss Najib Abdul Razak to resign.

Wong opined that Muhyiddin’s hesitation may have caused himself to be in the knot he is in.

“He (Muhyiddin) even doesn’t dare to be absent on budget voting (in Parliament recently). Will he be annihilated? Yes.

“How can anyone place their bet on you when you dare not speak up?” he asked.

Target core to survive

However, Wong said the blame should not be solely on Muhyiddin.

Instead, it should be shared by ex-premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad, arguably the leader of the “anti-Najib movement”.

“Mahathir did not admit wrongdoing in creating the Umno monster but he talked about setting up a council of elders.

“He could have said ‘I was wrong’, albeit some would be cynical (towards this), but this would have been very powerful…In order to protect this wrong institution, (Mahathir) refused to kill the monster," he said.

All eyes are trained on whether Najib would kill off party dissidents before the upcoming Umno general assembly, slated from Dec 8 to 12.

Muhyiddin’s only path to survival is to hit at the core, namely Umno's institutional problem, opined Wong.

“He needs to go all out to bring up the over-centralised power in Umno; at least you need to talk about this,” he added.

Muhyiddin's influence stripped away

Najib has suppressed party dissidents relentlessly since he sacked Muhyiddin and Umno vice-president Shafie Apdal from the cabinet.

The first arrow was targeted at Umno member Khairuddin Abu Hassan and his lawyer Matthias Chang by using Sosma.

Both were involved in making overseas reports alleging wrongdoings in 1MDB and Najib’s personal accounts, and are staunch supporters of Mahathir.

Second arrow was shot through the "Umno 7" list, which created a culture of fear in the party.

Gopeng Umno Wanita chief Hamidah Osman, who was on the list, was punished by being sacked from the party.

Both arrows have apparently resulted in many leaders drawing a line between them and the dissidents. Even previous 1MDB critics such as Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin has kept mum.

Najib’s strategy was to counter-attack dissidents indirectly, opined political scientist Phoon Wing Keong.

He said Najib weeded out dissidents’ proxy to send out a warning to party members.

“In previous months, Najib has killed several ‘dogs’ surrounding Mahathir. Najib flexed his muscles, which made Muhyiddin and Shafie not dare to launch a mutiny.

“Najib attacked indirectly rather than directly. This has made Muhyiddin & Co worry. This will weaken dissension and serve as a warning,” he said.

Muhyiddin is no Anwar

Since being removed from government, Muhyiddin has not made any strong move to strike back, nor mobilise the grassroots to form an opposition movement, let alone put forward a new challenge on Umno or propose a systematic reform, he said.

Muhyiddin did not demonstrate the character of a "dissident", he concluded, and was not able to pose a real threat to Najib's camp.

In contrast, Najib stripped away Muhyiddin's power gradually, resulting in Muhyiddin left with only Johor in his hand, a stronghold where he was menteri besar for years.

"What Najib is waiting for is a chance to dismiss Muhyiddin's membership.

"The likes of Muhyiddin and Shafie do not have moral aura, and they lack the ability of mass mobilisation. They are so used to the rules of Umno’s political game.

"These people are not Anwar Ibrahim. After stepping down, they lost the resource and hence lost the courage. They are unable to provide a set of vision and mobilise civil society… they can only ally themselves with other (factions), finding a way out by means of party infighting."

While the Umno general assembly is around the corner, some political pundits may anticipate Muhyiddin's camp to criticise Najib openly during the meeting.

But Phoon begged to differ.

"There will be some weak (objection) voice, but they will not be the mainstream, creating real damage to Najib. The whole atmosphere is highly suppressed.

"If the party members do not see Najib facing a threat (by his rivals), nobody is willing to be the first to step up. When anti-Najib sentiment is strong, everyone could stand up and contribute the extra punch, otherwise they will choose to be in silence," he said.

Muhyiddin still standing

Compared to the aforementioned analysis, Merdeka Center director Ibrahim Suffian is of a slightly different view: Muhyiddin is not out of the picture yet.

He pointed out that even after being dropped from the cabinet lineup, Muhyiddin is still the number two in the largest political party, and if the timing is right, he may be able to make a comeback.

"While he is currently sidelined, he remains deputy president until the next party election or if he is sacked.

"He still has some room to move, provided he plays his cards right. If he makes further action against Najib, he may be sacked, but if he bides his time and waits for others to falter, he may find some windows of opportunity in the future," he told Malaysiakini .

However, given Muhyiddin is blocked from being a part of "any substantive activities", he is out of play from the current goings-on in Umno, Ibrahim noted.

There are two options in front of Muhyiddin: either be a warlord in Umno, or a statesman who puts the national interest at heart, he pointed out.

"If he wants to remain active in politics, he probably has to make a choice between becoming a faction leader within Umno ( a tough position to be) or a statesman who moves beyond ordinary party politics and looks further at issues of national interest," he said.

Related reports

Umno not for one member, remember Najib's call for reform, asks Shafie

Shafie: Allow Muhyiddin to deliver winding-up speech at Umno AGM