Two weeks ago, not many Malaysians would have heard of the name Ahmad Ismail. A few informed Penangites might remember him as someone who stood to benefit financially if the Penang Outer Ring Road (Porr) ever was built (he was the main contractor of that project) but for the vast majority of Malaysians, he was a nobody. That is no longer the case.

An Umno division chief who is not even a municipal councillor (Dr Koh Tsu Koon did not approve of his reappointment) has single-handedly managed to bring the Penang Barisan Nasional coalition to its knees and could be responsible for the start of a wider BN disintegration.

umno mt meeting on ahmad ismail 100908 ahmad ismail.jpg Ahmad is responsible for many firsts in Malaysian politics. Prior to March 8, a speech given by a Malay politician referring to non-Malays as 'pendatangs' would not have raised many eyebrows. In fact, many of the speeches made in the Umno general assembly telecast 'live' in 2006 were much more incendiary than the one Ahmad made during a ceramah in the recent Permatang Pauh by-election.

The fact that it created such a big stir is indicative of the changes in the political environment post-March 8. Regardless of what happens to Ahmad, his experience will probably make a Malay politician think twice about publicly referring to non-Malays are 'pendatangs'.

Another precedent set by the Ahmad 'incident' was that it resulted in the deputy premier and Umno deputy president making an apology on his behalf, the first time that a senior Umno leader has had to apologise for remarks, made by another Umno leader in this case, that were deemed offensive by the non-Malay community.

Najib Razak's unreserved apology stands in stark contrast to Umno Youth leader Hishammuddin Hussein's half-hearted attempt at an apology made after the March 8 general elections.

PM fails to nip it in the bud

But Ahmad's 'greatest' achievements are undoubtedly making Abdullah Ahmad Badawi look foolish in his own home state and souring the relationship between Umno and Gerakan, perhaps to the point of no return.

ahmad ismail bukit bendera pinang umno tear up koh tsu koon photo 080908 zainol abidin hashim sequence A decisive leader would have not let this issue blow out of proportion. Abdullah should have demanded that Ahmad make an unreserved apology over his remarks instead of asking Najib to make that apology for him.

He should have prevented Ahmad from having a press conference where he made even more incendiary remarks (including asking the Chinese not to be like the 'Jews') and allowed a Penang Umno leader to tear a picture of Koh in two.

The inaction on the part of Abdullah only gives further fuel to those who oppose him within Umno that he is a weak and uninspired leader who cannot even control a division chief in his backyard.

Ahmad could have responded to the attacks on him by criticising the DAP. After all, it was DAP leaders in a few states which lodge police reports against him on the basis that he had made seditious remarks in calling the non-Malays 'pendatang'.

Instead, he choose to direct his responses against Koh and Gerakan. Granted, this was probably because Koh, in his capacity as the then Penang chief minister, did not reappoint him as a municipal councilor (among other reasons), but a direct consequence of his actions is that there is now a real possibility that Gerakan might pull out of the BN.

Koh's firm commitment to the BN, despite the presence of grassroots sentiment wanting to leave the BN, has most certainly wavered in the aftermath of this incident so much so that Koh is publicly questioning Gerakan's role in the BN. Gerakan has cut off all ties with Penang Umno, after all 13 divisions stood in support of Ahmad (including the PM's own division of Kepala Batas) and the BN Youth chief in Penang has resigned as a sign of protest.

The grassroots clamour within Gerakan to leave the BN has only grown stronger and Koh might be left with no option but to leave the BN, especially if Ahmad continues to be unrepentant and he is only let off with a slap on the wrist.

He has been suspended for three years. Whether that is seen as a slap on the wrist or not is yet to be seen in the coming days.

The ‘fourth wheel’ in BN

While Gerakan currently only has two MPs, its departure from the BN is of greater symbolic importance given its prominence as the 'fourth wheel' in the BN pecking order (after Umno, MCA and MIC).

This is just the kind of momentum which Anwar and Pakatan need to try to attract crossovers from BN so that it can form the next federal government. Furthermore, Gerakan's departure from the BN will put tremendous pressure of MCA and its leaders. It would be all but impossible for aspiring MCA leaders, who will be having internal elections in October, to stand meekly aside while its views continue to be ignored by Umno.

gerakan wanita pc on ahmad ismail bukit bendera koh tsu koon tear down photo stunt 090908 abdullah picture If the BN breaks apart in Peninsular Malaysia, it would not be too difficult to imagine parties in Sabah and Sarawak 'bailing out' of a sinking ship and throw in their lot with Pakatan Rakyat, either as individual MPs joining PKR or an entire party entering Pakatan.

It would be ironic that the BN coalition, which has survived May 13 and is the longest ruling coalition in modern politics, might be brought down by a maverick who is not even an elected representative and who himself is from Umno - the party that stands to lose the most from losing power at the federal level.

We have said in the past that the BN is very adept at scoring own goals. We do not think that Ahmad is under the 'directive' of some sinister political force in the country. We think that he is a maverick who is enjoying his time under the spotlight as a Malay 'hero' of sorts. But still, the 'own goal' which he has scored has led to the most serious internal crisis within the BN in many years.

ONG KIAN MING is a PhD candidate in political science at Duke University and OON YEOH is a writer and new media analyst. You can listen to both of them discuss this topic in their Realpolitik podcast .

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