It was the second largest collective of arrests in Malaysia, the biggest swoop since May 13.

A year before Ops Lalang, it was all rosy for Umno. The numero uno party led Barisan Nasional to another successful electoral victory, reducing PAS and DAP to being rather weak opposition parties.

However, later in the same year, tragedy struck in Memali, Kedah when at least 200 security forces personnel, fully armed, lay siege around the Madrasah of Ibrahim Libya, an influential religious teacher and former PAS candidate, and the ensuing clash saw 14 civilians and four policemen dead.

The next year, 1987, saw Umno in a crisis. Head honcho Dr Mahathir Mohamad's leadership was being seriously challenged as never before in a long time. The party was deeply divided between him and Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.

And then Umno was ruled an illegal organisation due to some internal irregularities.

Just more than a week before the Ops Lalang crackdown, racial tensions were brewing over the issue of the appointment of non-Mandarin educated principals in Chinese schools.

With this backdrop, Ops Lalang was launched. Those arrested included figures from the opposition (PAS and DAP), non-governmental organisations, Chinese schools, the Islamic teaching fraternity and the Church.

While the threat of racial riots seemed real, many of those arrested from the DAP had nothing to do with the issue, while obvious culprits such as Lee Kim Sai (then MCA deputy president and labour minister) escaped arrest.

Those who were arrested from Umno did not include the top-notch leaders responsible, but merely lower rung members.

Similarly, while figures such as DAP veteran leader Lim Kit Siang and his son Lim Guan Eng became the last to be released from detention, those from the ruling coalition were given an early reprieve.

Present scenario

Flashback to the present.

Since April 10 and Sept 11 last year, there are fears that another large scale arrest is lurking in the corner. An Ops Lalang II in effect.

While, yes, recent by-election results would suggest strong public support for the ruling government, it has been achieved through violent and desperate methods that suggested that the BN is scared and worried.

The Sept 11 incident is used to prop up the bogey of fundamentalist terrorism with the alleged existence of Kumpulan Mujahidin Malaysia (and later mysteriously changed to Kumpulan Militan Malaysia by the government and the traditional press).

So too the Al-Maunah scandalous arms heist is used to portray the dangers posed by Muslim terrorists. A lopsided documentary on the Memali incident, which implicated PAS in a negative light, was broadcast on government television stations before, during and after the Indera Kayangan by-election as a part of the ruling fronts propaganda to demonise the opposition.

At the same time, however, MCA, the second largest component in the ruling front, is now facing its own Team A-Team B split, just as Umno had in the mid-1980s (though the problems with MCA appeared settled for now after Mahathirs intervention). Furthermore, rumours are now widespread of a rift between Umno deputy president Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and vice-president Najib Abdul Razak, with the latter seemingly more popular than the lacking-in-charisma heir to the top spot of the government.

Some even argued that the recent controversial Harakah online poll on who would be the most suitable person to replace PM, indeed reflected the sentiment of not only PAS supporters, but within Umno itself.

Of course, Umno leaders are denying any rift, accusing the opposition of trying to split the party, but few would accept their denial without a pinch of salt after the previous claim of unity between Mahathir and Anwar right before the former shockingly sacked the latter. To add to that, some of the establishment press have been exposing the rivalry between various factions in the weakest state Umno of all, i.e. Kelantan, who are seeking to overcome the inadequacies of Mustapha Mohamed, the state liaison officer.

This similar background to the situation during Ops Lalang will provide Mahathir a useful justification of disunity, religious extremism, racial chauvinism and the need for stability to steamroll civil rights and provide a final blow to the opposition and eliminate voices of dissent within the ruling coalition, thus guaranteeing a big win for BN in the next general election, whenever he decides to hold it.

Difficult to predict

Of course, the speculation that there could be another Ops Lalang-like move by the government has been around for the past few years. In his Merdeka 2000 address, DAP chairperson Lim Kit Siang expressed his concern for the situation at that time an attempt to create racial tensions through manipulation of communal issues; media focus on Islamic terrorism, and threats from a Cabinet minister about another large-scale detention of opposition and NGO activists which had some similarities with the situation prior to Ops Lalang 15 years ago.

The recent hunger strike by ISA detainees and reformasi activists, in spite of an almost total blackout in the local press, drew attention and support throughout the world. Whether Mahathir would override the opposition to the act that has become vocal again, lies on how desperate he is. Being the opportunistic and shrewd leader that he is, it is difficult to predict his actions.

While now he is equated with injustice and suppression of the country's democratic institutions, as well as rampant cronyism and corruption, Mahathir was once extremely popular and, the people's perception of his xenophobic nationalism not withstanding, led BN into a thumping victory in the 1982 election, as described vividly in Rehman Rashid's A Malaysian Journey. He released 168 ISA detainees, in a move that was hailed by Amnesty International.

Unfortunately, as time progressed, he moved back against the forces of liberation that he was thought to have been a part of, and has greatly undermined the country's judiciary, democracy and civil rights. Whether another Ops Lalang is initiated or not, we should all awake from our apathetic slumber and join hands for the country's democracy.