Commentary on Osama bin Laden's famous tape of Oct 29 has conceded generally that presidential candidate George W Bush was likely to benefit more from the broadcast than John Kerry in the on-going US election. In fact, that is an almost amusing understatement.

Consider the timing. What was happening prior to the tape? Kerry was steadily gaining on Bush and it looked highly possible that the election would prove an upset, with Bush's substantial lead cut in all polls down to the wire.

The tape came juts days before the election, an October surprise par excellence. For some time, many of us had been saying and writing that al-Qaeda would intervene - probably, we thought, in the form of a terrorist attack. This would firm up support for Bush. Thankfully, we only got a tape.

Why would Osama prefer his own epitome of evil, the man whom he mocked in his broadcast, over the more nuanced democratic candidate? It is simple.

Lenin, to indicate why he wanted hard capitalists to win in European elections over more compassionate socialists, famously said "the worse the better".

In other words, a communist revolution would come faster the worse the capitalist governments of Europe and elsewhere became. Socialism might buy off the masses for a while.