As of 5pm today, it was announced by the powerful Umno disciplinary committee that Mohd Ali Rustam has been barred from contesting for the position of deputy president in the ruling party.

At the same time, Khairy Jamaluddin, one of the three contestants for the position of Youth chief, was given a ‘stern warning' while Dr Mohd Khir Toyo was found not guilty of any wrongdoing.

What does this all mean? How should we interpret the ‘signals' which have been sent as a result of the announcement?

umno disciplinary committee decision ali rustam khairy toyo 170309 1. Najib clearly felt that it was too risky to allow Mohd Ali to even have the slightest chance of defeating Muhyiddin Yassin and as a result, to make a claim to the position of deputy prime minister.

Not only would Najib's credibility as a leader be threatened but the credibility of the BN and of the country would also be at stake given the relative lack of experience on the part of Mohd Ali and the lack of respect for him, especially among the general public.

2. The ‘stern warning' give to Khairy is a clear indication that Najib wants to move away from the Abdullah Ahmad Badawi era.

While this may please many of those within Umno and in the general public who dislike Khairy intensely, one has to keep in mind that Khairy was the only candidate among the three Umno Youth chief aspirants to have any semblance of a message of ‘moderation' and who was willing to publicly express somewhat of an alternative, and dare I say, more ‘inclusive' path for youth wing to take.

3. Surprisingly, by letting Mohd Khir off scot-free, Najib is signaling that he is not willing to give Dr Mahathir Mohamad what he wants most - which is to pave the way for Mukhriz to win the Umno Youth chief position.

By doing this, Najib is showing that he is willing to stand up against the ‘bullying' tactics of Mahathir and not give in to his demands.

4. It is also a signal that Najib can tolerate Khir as the Youth chief even though this would inevitably alienate a lot of non-Malay voters.

mukhriz mahathir khir toyo khairy jamaluddin hujah dialogue 180209 03 If Mohd Khir wins, Najib will almost certainly use him as a weapon to win back the Malay voters even if it means that the non-Malay voters are alienated. All this would change if in the next few days, the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission goes after Mohd Khir, or any of his associates, on charges of money politics but this is very unlikely.

5. This is not a signal that Najib is about to crack down on money politics within Umno.

If this was the case, then Mohd Khir would not have been left off without even so much as a warning. This is more of a signal about who wields the real power within Umno, i.e Najib, rather than a signal of intent to crack down on money politics per se.

6. By signaling his intention to take on Mohd Ali and to a certain extent, even Mahathir, Najib is telling the opposition that he means business.

If he is willing to take on a popular deputy president candidate and that he is not willing to give in to the demands of a popular former PM, then he is be more than willing to take on the opposition on whatever playing field they may choose. There is no sign of any possible ‘compromise' or ‘ceasefire' in sight.

ONG KIAN MING is a PhD candidate in political science at Duke University. He can be reached at im.ok.man (at) gmail (dot) (com)