Najib can rely on gerry-mandering to pull through
YOURSAY 'Honestly this Umcedel survey does not tell you much, as you may know with all the gerrymandering done, Najib needs only 15% of the votes to cling on to power.'
Survey puts Pakatan 5pct behind BN for Putrajaya
Changeagent: For a sample size of 1,409 respondents at 95 percent confidence interval, there will be a margin of error of at least 2.5 percent.
This means that it is statistically possible for both BN and Pakatan Rakyat to be in a political dead-heat situation with a popular support base of 39.5 percent apiece (BN 42%-2.5%; Pakatan 37%+2.5%).
When you also factor in the 21 percent of respondents who are still undecided, it is anyone's guess how the Universiti Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections (Umcedel) team can conclude that BN would retain Putrajaya.
My personal conclusion is that Umcedel's Prof Mohd Redzuan Othman does not know what he is talking about.
Jiminy Qrikert: It's surprising how Umcedel's Prof Mohd Redzuan could have come to his conclusions. Any professional familiar with tracking development trends would arrive at a totally different set of takeouts from the chart. Key observations:
1. Over the 13-week period, it is clear that Pakatan was able to more than double its support from 18% to 37%, hence the need to identify where this came from.
2. Support for BN remained stagnant. 3. Fence-sitters fell from 39% to 21%, i.e., 18% equal to the growth in support for Pakatan.
Now, the inferences:
1. There are no more issues which BN can manipulate that connects with the fence-sitters. Whatever they used have had zero positive growth in their support.
2. The steep incline in support growth for Pakatan means that all things equal, it will be able to convert the rest of the fence-sitters in the next two months.
3. Current issues are driving Pakatan's growth momentum.
4. Pakatan is very likely to win GE13 based on 58% to 42%. Even if fence-sitters are 10%, Pakatan will win 48% to 42%.
Snoopyjnr: About 50% of the country did not want the evil, corrupt BN in the last election. That spoke volumes.
That is why proportional representation for Parliament and a directly elected PM is a more fairer system and the current first-past-the post must be changed.
Najib, Anwar running neck-and-neck in popularity
Slumdog: Despite all the scandals and accusations, PM Najib Razak is still the preferred PM amongst 43% of the survey sample compared to Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim's 42%.
It is difficult to understand the mindset of certain sections of the rakyat which still support Najib. It is obvious the disinformation reported by the MSM (mainstream media) have an inordinate influence on a large part of the population.
In addition to the corrupted Election Commission database and their election procedures, this is going to be a very difficult election for the opposition to win. I sincerely hope I am wrong and that the sample methodology is flawed.
Ferdtan: Umcedel survey team leader Prof Mohd Redzuan Othman, please start to get your pen and paper ready to apply for new job.
The powers-that-be will not be happy with your survey as it only shows a slim percentage higher for PM Najib over Anwar Ibrahim in popularity. They wanted more.
How accurate the survey is a matter of opinion. However, judging from the desperate attempts by Umno's apparent outsourced general election strategist, Perkasa (led by its president Ibrahim Ali) and the brain of the whole scheme, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, we know for sure BN is in trouble.
The tactics used are race and religion. That was Mahathir's trump card in the past when the government-controlled mainstream media were used to blare out such ‘misinformation'.
Sorry Mahathir, in this era of Internet where information goes out in real time - you can't fool the rakyat anymore.
Telestai!: The sample size of this Umcedel survey is 1,409 and there are 222 parliamentary seats.
With the Chinese making only 20% of the population, the survey would have only interviewed 280 Chinese respondents, i.e. approximately one respondent per parliamentary constituency.
Even if the sampling net is cast wide enough to cover all the constituencies, one respondent per constituency cannot be considered representative of the community.
Unlike other countries, Malaysia's electoral topography is highly skewed, thanks to years of gerrymandering by the BN-friendly EC. So how? Back to the drawing board.
Vasudevan: Honestly this survey does not tell you much, as you may know with all the gerrymandering done, Najib needs only 15% of the votes to cling on to power.
There are so many parameter left unchecked, rural versus urban, rich versus poor, Indian, Sabah and Sarawak, etc.
Sometimes we should not read too much into this unless the population dispersion is provided. Najib can sleep easy for now.
Gggg: I am a government servant. What do you think if someone ask me where my votes go?
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