Reading the somewhat depressing prognosis of fellow academic Prof KS Jomo, I felt a chill going down my spine. Yes, it appears that - all things remaining equal - the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) will secure for itself yet another thumping victory at the election come Sunday.

But what a phyrric victory it would be too. If anything, this will not be a victory for anyone; neither the BN nor the opposition parties in the country. And if anyone will have to bear the cost, it will be all of us, the ordinary citizens of this country and the generations to come.

For many pundits have forecasted the obliteration of Parti Keadilan Rakyat (Keadilan) and the eventual return of some of its leaders and members to the Umno. The scenario should be familiar to us by now: we have seen it happen before with Semangat '46, the party whose fleeting appearance on the Malaysian political landscape was so brief that it has not even been studied by political scientists and historians, save a handful of eccentric scholars who are interested in the most insignificant aspects of unrecorded history.

Umno in turn has shown that it is able and willing to re-absorb its delinquents and dissenters, including those who had left the party and denounced it, blaming it for everything under the sun. Having failed to make a dent in the political machinery of the nation, these ex-Semangat leaders were forced to eat their own words and munch on humble pie as they stood in line at Umno's back door, waiting to be allowed back into the party. There is a Malay saying that goes something like "having spat at their enemies, they were then forced to lick their spit again." Obviously self-respect is a quality that is rare among our breed of Machiavellian politicians.

Should the same fate befall Keadilan - and I for one sincerely hope not - it would mean that there has not been any seismic shift in Malaysian politics, the uneven terrain created thus far suited more to the politics of dialectical confrontation between larger parties, with smaller ones playing second fiddle all the time. What is worse, it would mean that the future of Malaysian politics will be dominated by the two main Malay-Muslim parties of the land, Umno and PAS. This would be a disaster for the nation as a whole, for the following reasons:

Intra-communal struggle

For a start it has to be noted that the intense battle between Umno and PAS has been largely an intra-communal struggle within the Malay-Muslim constituency. It is well known that both Umno and PAS have always (and still do) see the Malay-Muslims as their primary voters, supporters and members, and both parties have tailored their discourse and tactics to appeal to the sensibilities of this community in particular.

Thus it can be seen that despite the occasional shifts and alterations made to their propaganda, both Umno and PAS remain sectarian parties fighting according to the logic of communitarianism. It therefore hardly comes as a surprise if and when the leaders and spokespersons of both parties utter comments or issue policy statements that offend the other communities in the country: Both parties are convinced that their own political base is secure as long as the Malay votes are in their favour.

This communitarian outlook in turn spells certain problems and dangers for Malaysia's future, as we live in a multicultural society where pluralism is the reality that cannot be avoided. As both Umno and PAS compete for the Malay-Muslim vote, it is inevitable that both sides will try to up the ante in the contest between them. As 'Malayness' is a more static factor in their political calculation, the only other avenue where an upping of the stakes can take place is the sphere of normative Islam.

It is this relentless attempt to up the stakes in the Islamisation race that has distorted Malaysian politics to the point where the political framework, structures and culture of Malaysia has been altered beyond recognition. A cursory overview of the developments since the 1980s will show that both Umno and PAS have tried to introduce and impose more and more laws, regulations and rituals to boost their respective Islamic credentials and to extend their hold on the Malay-Muslim constituency.

If PAS came up with its Islamic state project and its version of Hudud laws, Umno has come up with its own brand of Islamisation, including restrictive forms of legislation such as the Perlis Aqidah Bill which was almost passed and made law. And let us not forget the squads of 'moral police' that roam the streets in areas where Umno and PAS are in control: evidence, if any was needed, that both parties see the policing of Malay-Muslims as a priority.

Both Umno and PAS have paid lip service to laudatory ideals and notions of progressive Islam, claiming that they see Islam as a religion that is modern, progressive, moderate, sensitive to human rights and democracy - yet in their actual thoughts and actions they have proved otherwise. The host of laws that intrude into the most private areas of normative Muslim life and the private sphere show that both parties see Islam as a means to control, police and ultimately homogenise Malay-Muslim society.

Indeed, as a result of the Umno-PAS Islamisation race, the private space of ordinary Muslim citizens has been compromised and violated as never before.

Break the stranglehold

The only way out of this morass is to break the stranglehold that these two parties have on the Malaysian public, by offering a third way out. What was needed all along was an alternative approach offered by a third party that did not see Islam as merely a set of rites and rituals that could be employed for the sake of social policing and governmental control. Many of us had hoped that Keadilan would play this role and make progressive, democratic and pluralist Islam one of its stated objectives.

But sadly as recent events have showed, neither PAS nor Umno are willing to accommodate an alternative approach to civil Islam in Malaysia. The uneven playing field favours the dominant parties, and Keadilan has found it hard to break through: firstly because it made the mistake of hanging on PAS' coat-tails in the wake of the 1999 elections, and secondly because its own attempts to formulate and articulate an alternative vision of Islam were slow and inconsistent.

Keadilan has finally learned that it has to carve its own space on the landscape of Malaysian politics and that it needs to find a voice of its own. Its commitment to plural democracy is a good step forward, and starting from that premise it needs to develop an understanding of normative Islam that is committed to democratisation, reform and the creation of a plural civil society.

For it to succeed, however, it should be given a chance. It is for this reason that Keadilan deserves to win some seats in Parliament, so that it can state its position clearly in the public space and check the degeneration of normative Islamic politics that has been distorted so by the other parties in the country.

For a long time the urban-based, liberal, middle-class constituency in Malaysia have bemoaned the abuse and distortion of Islam at the hands of Malaysian politicians who have been motivated primarily by their own sectarian interests. If these liberals want to give a chance for an alternative Islam to thrive and flourish, they should at least use their vote to give the spokespersons for reform and change a chance.

Keadilan may not make any major gains on Sunday, but it should be given the chance to stay on

the political scene at least. For if there is going to be any change in the way that we Malaysians see and understand normative Islam, it is only going to come from a third voice that speaks according to a different script, one that does not parrot the discourse of sectarian politics or communal chauvinism.

The loss of Keadilan would mean not simply the loss of a fledgling party, but the loss of the opportunity to turn around the tide of state-orchestrated Islamisation that has gone badly wrong in this country of ours. For our own sake, and that of future generations of Malaysians, we need to stop this rot now.

Dr FARISH A NOOR is a Malaysian political scientist and human rights activist. His 'The Other Malaysia' column appears in malaysiakini .