Two key reasons why Harapan will win GE14
In the 13th general election (GE13), Umno-BN suffered a major setback when they lost the popular vote and seven additional parliament seats. The opposition under Pakatan Rakyat was successful in making inroads into some of BN’s strongholds.
About four years later, we see a new political landscape in Malaysia. While PAS leaves Pakatan Rakyat, Umno-BN is complicit to one of the world’s largest money-laundering scandals. 1MDB is not the only high-profiled corruption case which is dragging Umno down.
We have the Sabah Watergate scandal, the Youth and Sports Ministry RM100 million scandal, The Johor Umno corruption scandals which involve a state exco member and another which involves the Youth chief of an Umno division (too many corruption scandals for me to list down).
A trust deficit ensues and Umno-BN’s popularity is at a steady decline. The polls now indicate that Umno is at the 40 percent mark, the lowest it has ever received since independence. Let’s not forget that polling numbers for the government are usually lower than what’s recorded. This is due to voter’s ‘fear’ of revealing their support for the opposition.
For example, prior to GE13, Umno-BN was polling at 65-70 percent. Yet when election came, they only captured 47 percent of the voters. Even though there is a three-way fight, I believe Pakatan Harapan will stand to win especially with the rise of Bersatu under the 3Ms, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Mukhriz Mahathir and Muhyiddin Yassin.
Two key indicators
1) Pakatan Harapan’s continuous focus on people-centric issues.
Despite a bumpy start, Pakatan Harapan is more united than ever. A leadership council has been set up which is led by Dr Mahathir and Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail. A common agreement has been struck in the creation of a common manifesto, one logo and one name. As we speak, the council is finalising on its leadership lineup.
Some might argue that the opposition is still fragmented and that race/religion will be used heavily to deflect accountability from the government. Fortunately, all major polls show that race and religion are not even in the top five issues for voters. In the poll called ‘What Malaysia wants’, it showed that voters care most about reducing the cost of living. Then comes the issue of corruption, followed by the threat upon our national sovereignty.
Noticed how Pakatan Harapan has been most consistent in fighting for these three issues. That explains the masses who will turn up at all ‘ceramah’ which feature the 3Ms.
Heck, previously no one would have thought that ‘Corruption’ and ‘National Sovereignty’ would make it on the list, yet now these three issues are on the forefront of the political battlefield.
While opposition parties are not free from scandals (Lim Guan Eng, Adam Rosly, PAS ex-top leader, Kelantan logging scandal), they’ve responded to it much better than Umno-BN. Notice how Harapan was quick in distancing themselves from Adam Rosly. The scale of the scandals is also much smaller than the ones perpetrated by Umno-BN.
Let’s also not ignore the elephant in the room which is none other than the father/mother of all scandals, 1MDB, which has made waves all across the world while allegedly implicating the prime minister. Voters are smart enough to make the distinction...