“What I don't understand is why a man like you took the job in the first place, hmm? Why, huh?”

- Calvera, ‘The Magnificent Seven’

COMMENT | Apparently, a poll that Malaysiakini carried out discovered that many its readers “trust” former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad. The reality is that it really does not matter if Malaysians “trust” Mahathir. If you are an opposition voter and you believe the propaganda that Malaysia is a kleptocracy under the Najib regime, then it necessitates shoving your doubts in the corner and getting on board the ‘Mahathir Express’.

I say “propaganda that Malaysia is a kleptocracy under the Najib regime” because Malaysia was always more or less a kleptocracy and unless opposition politicians really have the political will to change this monumental ideology - “ideology” because that is what is fuelling this kleptocracy - then it really does not matter if anyone “trust” Mahathir.

Besides Mahathir does not need your trust, he only needs your vote. People who vote opposition have made up their minds that this is the election that would oust the current Umno grand poohbah from Putrajaya and if this means siding with the former prime minister, who by opposition consensus was the architect of this mess, so be it.

The only “trust” that the former prime minister needs is that of the rural polities who have sustained Umno all these years. Indeed, theirs is the only trust that matters. At a recent forum, PSM’s Dr Michael Jeyakumar Devaraj said, “The decision to bring Mahathir in is because earlier on, for five years, the opposition has failed to deal with the concerns of the rural folk. This is the weakness of Harapan, which has brought us to the situation of having to invite the old man in."

This is exactly what I have been saying all these years. Granted, my ambivalence towards the 1MDB issue is grounded in cynicism - corruption has always been a problem in Malaysia - and that I view the threat of Islamic extremism (in Malaysia) as existential in nature. However, PSM and many other outlier oppositional voices have been urging the opposition to shift their focus to the rural areas for years.

Earlier this year, I reiterated this point - “Opposition politicians operating in the rural heartlands tell me that this obsession with urban issues has absolutely no traction in their communities and makes Umno’s job easier because it makes it seem that the urban elite - meaning us - have no idea what is going on where they live except to think of them as lazy and ignorant.

“There are people in the opposition who know exactly what affects these people on an immediate and personal level but these issues do not get the attention that the latest stupid thing a BN potentate says or the latest corruption scandal that is part of the news cycle that plays well in the echo chambers.”

However, the question is really, what do the rural demographic trust Mahathir to do? Will they trust him to ensure that whatever they are getting from Umno will remain if there is regime change? Look at the Umno narrative. The Umno narrative is that the Chinese will dominate the opposition and that whatever “aid” these people rely on will be disrupted if there is regime change. Issues such as “Malay” supremacy and Islam ultimately are for the urban Malay demographic that supports Umno.

When Bersatu frontman Muhyiddin Yassin for instance talks of the need to “rehabilitate Felda”, he talks about this in the context to “provide lucrative returns” to a demographic stuck in a cycle of dependence on the state. There is no talk of changing the demographic because that would be anathema to the kind of “Malay” democracy that sustains Malay power structures in this country.

Mind you since this is what the opposition signed up for, there is no use in whining about it but the reality is that the opposition will have a hard time gaining the trust of the demographic when the Umno state has the resources and manpower to muscle in on whatever initiatives the opposition carries out.

A new Barisan

As Jeyakumar rightly pointed out - "We can say we will continue all these welfares Umno gives you (the rural folk), but we will make it better and cut off the cronies in the middle. Won't that be popular?"

It would be popular but isn’t this what the so-called urban opposition supporters for years have been decrying? Calling the rural demographic “ignorant” and dependent on “handouts”? This, of course, is the greatest irony of all. Now the opposition needs someone like Mahathir to convince the rural polities that their dependency on the state would not be disrupted if there was regime change.

Of course, this means that the narrative that rural folks are ignorant and part of the handout culture goes out the window. This is exactly what the opposition is hoping that Mahathir can deliver. They want him to convince the rural folk and the Malays that the opposition and not only Umno can deliver on whatever “welfares” they have been getting for years, and that the corruption of Umno is what has compromised those “welfares”.

Does this sound unpalatable to some folks? Because the alternative is presenting an alliance which is completely different from the Umno/BN paradigm. This could mean that the Najib regime could remain in power for some time.

As Amanah leader Mohamad Sabu said at the same forum, Umno and the government (especially in the rural areas) is not mutually exclusive, which is the biggest stumbling block the opposition faces. The former prime minister has to convince people that Bersatu is the new Umno and the alliance is the new Barisan National, albeit without all the "dedak" consumption.

The former prime minister has already said that he would not rejoin Umno. In my interview with him (at a time when he thought Umno was worth saving) he said - “Umno is as good as the people in Umno. It is not the organisation that is bad, it is the people who run the organisation. You can run it well and it will deliver, or you can abuse it and it will become very bad.

“So the thing to do really is to change the people, not change the organisation. You can change the organisation slightly in order to avoid abuses, but no matter how well you word the constitution, the laws, the rules, there will be people who will abuse, interpret it in a different way and abuse the provisions. So we are seeing people who want to change the organisation structure, but the fault is the people who run it.”

I for one do not think he will rejoin Umno. Why should he? Either the ranks of the Malay-based Bersatu swell if the opposition wins the election or Umno will slowly implode when the money runs out after the malfeasances reach a point where not every warlord mouth could be fed. All of this depends, of course, if Mahathir can convince a majority of Malays that it is Bersatu that prioritises the struggle for “religion, race, and country."

So the real question is, does the former Umno prime minister trust the opposition not to derail the Mahathir Express?

S Thayaparan is Commander (Rtd) of the Royal Malaysian Navy.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.