COMMENT | For PAS under Abdul Hadi Awang, the Islamic agenda is above all. When PAS spiritual leader Nik Aziz Nik Mat died in February 2015, the era of cooperation with other opposition parties effectively ended.

In fact, Hadi pushed the envelope far forward to effectively get into a working relationship with Umno, something that was anathema to Nik Aziz who swore that he would never work with Umno.

PAS cooperated with Umno in a number of things, with perhaps one of the major areas of cooperation in recent times the amendment to Act 355 which would have given syariah courts substantially increased powers of punishment.

Hadi’s proposed amendments to the Syariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act 1965 (Act 355) will raise the punishment ceiling to 30 years' jail, RM100,000 fine and 100 times of whipping instead of completely doing away with the punishment cap. This act was however deferred, mainly due to objections from Sabah and Sarawak.

More recently, PAS MPs supported the passage of the Anti-Fake News Bill which provides for hefty punishment and fines for those who report or transmit fake news, the definition of which is not at all clear. And PAS has been back-pedalling on its criticisms of 1MDB.

That PAS under Hadi is willing to work with Umno is very clear but why not form an alliance with Umno instead? That way PAS is assured there won’t be three-cornered fights which are, according to most analyses and which I agree with as well, most detrimental to PAS. It has the potential of virtually wiping out PAS’ seats or whittling down substantially the number of seats it has now.

Surely Hadi and PAS top brass must realise that this a suicide mission that PAS is undertaking for Umno, but why? If it had stayed in the opposition coalition it certainly would have gained by the shift in Malay voters away from BN which will almost certainly happen. And PAS would have most certainly benefited.

A clue comes from Hadi’s own statements on PAS. Hadi said that PAS did not fear losing elections because its cause is Islam. That means that PAS is prepared to sacrifice all so long as Islam is furthered. That would naturally mean Islamic laws as well.

The frightening and surprising implication from this is that PAS is prepared to lose to support a government which will further the Islamic cause - probably the assurance that Islamic laws will be given more prominence in the legal system.

In other words, PAS is deliberately playing a spoiler role in these elections, sacrificing seats for the furtherance of Islam. Hadi has openly said they would cooperate with Umno/BN on PAS’ own terms which he refused to disclose.

Malay voters’ dilemma

The more cynical among analysts and observers point to reports that say PAS has taken money from Umno, a figure of RM90 million being cited, the source for which Sarawak Report editor Clare Rewcastle-Brown has named former Bar Council chairperson Ambiga Sreenevasan as part of her defence against a defamation suit filed in the High Court in London by Hadi.

Earlier it was reported that PKR vice-president Rafizi Ramli named former PAS deputy president Dr Nasharudin Mat Isa as the individual who allegedly received an undisclosed amount of funds from SRC International Sdn Bhd, a former 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) subsidiary.

However, Nasharudin denied receiving this money.

But the stories continue to circulate, with credence being given by PAS’ strange stance at GE14 which erases cooperation with opposition parties in the previous two elections, considerably increasing its clout and making it a more national party. 

PAS’ strange stance, however, poses a dilemma to Malay voters. In the past two elections, it was a straight choice between Umno on one side and PAS/PKR on the other side in the coalition to represent Malay interests. Now there is Umno in one corner, PAS in another and PKR/Amanah/Bersatu in one more to bewilder Malay voters and give them a dilemma of sorts.

Who do Malays vote for? Are Umno and PAS in one camp? If so, why don’t they form an alliance? Do we ditch the long-established Malay parties and go for the three others represented in the coalition? Will those three others represent Malay interests properly?

It will be better for Harapan if the fight was looked at as between two sides - Umno/PAS vs PKR/Bersatu/Amanah and in practical terms that’s what it is. There is no major difference in terms of the big issues between that for Malays and non-Malays - 1MDB, GST, price increases, Felda, corruption, gap in living standards, etc. All these things indicate a Malay swing away from Umno/BN.

But a swing away from Umno/BN to who, to Harapan or to PAS, and in what proportion? Since PAS has no hope for forming a government, one may think that most of the swing votes will go to Harapan but remember that Harapan has already lost the votes from hardcore PAS supporters.   

The entrance of Nik Aziz’s son, Nik Omar, as a Harapan candidate under Amanah opens up some new possibilities and for Malays to vote against PAS in significant numbers in favour of Harapan. But it is pretty difficult to say how much sway he will have although some analysts are hopeful. 

This will add on to the momentum that Harapan leader Dr Mahathir Mohamad who has given a tireless boost to the opposition campaign which has roped in additionally former ministers Daim Zainuddin and Rafidah Aziz. The appearance of these big names together with the likes of PKR leaders Wan Azizah Wan Ismail and Azmin Ali on the same stage has whipped up crowd enthusiasm like never before. If these translate to votes on the ground, that may tip the balance.

Close results

If Harapan wins enough parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia, say, a 100, then it needs just 12 (the opposition previously won nine) more from Sabah and Sarawak to form the government. This is considered to be achievable if former Umno minister Shafie Apdal has a good showing with Warisan in Sabah as generally expected.

Furthermore, there are possibilities if Harapan has a strong showing in the peninsula, Mahathir, given his close relationships with Sarawak top politicians, especially former chief minister and current governor Abdul Taib Mahmud, may be able to engineer a massive defection to Harapan. 

If Malays decide that PAS and Umno are one in this election and lump them together, then Harapan has a good chance of winning the election. But if they consider PAS an alternative to Umno, then votes will be split three ways to the detriment of Harapan in Malay super-majority seats. How the Malays vote in their dilemma of choice will decide the outcome of GE14.

Considering all the sound that PAS is making, plenty of evidence and links between PAS and Umno, Malay perception may be that Umno/PAS are one. If enough Malays perceive that, all hope is not lost for Harapan.

What is required is a large turnout and a large swing of Malay votes from both Umno and PAS to Harapan while Harapan maintains or increases its non-Malay vote percentage.

Meantime, make sure to cast your own vote tomorrow - the fate of the nation depends on it.

P GUNASEGARAM says that sometimes not taking a chance is to lose an opportunity. E-mail: t.p.guna@gamail.com. 

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.