ADUN SPEAKS | In the aftermath of the six state elections in Penang, Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, at a glance, it seems that Perikatan Nasional has gained ground at the expense of Pakatan Harapan and BN.

But there is more than meets the eye. What PN achieved on Aug 12 is as far as it can get.

These are the realities on the ground:

No more talk of a mid-way change of government

It was unfortunate that the opposition PN had been questioning the legitimacy of the unity government despite Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's clear and solid parliamentary confidence support on Dec 19, 2022.

PN's narrative up until the state elections was that if Harapan had lost Selangor, the collapse of the federal unity government would soon follow.

A 3:3 verdict last night (Saturday night), which most pollsters predicted, has ended any talks of a mid-way change of government to replicate the Sheraton coup.

Constant posturing of an imminent change of government won’t gain much traction, apart from keeping PN hardcore supporters in ecstasy.

PN will have to accept the reality that it did not win the 15th general election and thus, have to serve the remaining term by presenting itself as an effective opposition, which it doesn't seem to be capable of.

The limits of mobilising Malay-only anger

During the elections, PN chairperson Muhyiddin Yassin repeated his constant message that his coalition would form the Selangor government if 90 percent of Malay voters voted for PN.

He was surprisingly frank in his view that a change of government in Selangor would only happen if almost all Malays swung to PN, due to the multiethnic nature of the state.

Most parts of Malaysia are more like Selangor than Kedah, Kelantan or Terengganu.

To win federal power through a general election, the winning coalition will have to win across ethnic lines. Winning votes from one community is not enough to gain power.

Structurally, PN is handicapped. The dominant Malay coalition could only mobilise Malay anger but failed to win non-Malay support.

Ideally, the nation benefits if PN makes a serious attempt to win more than just Malay votes.

Such a move would create a full-fledged two-coalition structure with both sides competing effectively for votes from all ethnicities, therefore lowering ethnic tension caused by PN's mobilisation of Malay anger.

If PN refuses to build a meaningful multiethnic coalition in time for the next general election, the unity government will likely be the default winner.

The political end of Muhyiddin, Hadi and Azmin

PN's failure to win Selangor from the unity government means no more coups to topple the Anwar government. This also means that the political leadership of Muhyiddin and PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang will become less relevant by the day.

PN’s most effective political leaders are likely to be caretakers Kedah Menteri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor and Terengganu Menteri Besar Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar.

Beneath Sanusi’s spontaneous and rancorous political style is a brilliant Trump-like populist.

Samsuri is not talked about much nationally yet he is consequentially crucial because of his effectiveness as a strategist and by virtue of his holding the menteri besar post.

For the first time since the Young Turks that included Hadi launched a party coup 40 years ago in 1982, PAS is likely to witness a major generational shift soon.

Once PAS transitions into the Sanusi-Samsuri generation, no one can rule out a spectacular resetting of directions.

Bersatu is now without a power base and is inevitably being squeezed by PAS. It will take a lot of cohesiveness and determination for Bersatu to persevere for three to four years into the next general election.

I am not writing off Bersatu just yet but the writing is on the wall for Azmin Ali.

While Azmin won the Hulu Kelang state seat, he seems to have no political future.

Outside his own party, he is constrained by the multiethnic character of Selangor and his own inability to operate without government resources and powers.

Within Bersatu, he is already being marginalised by Hamzah Zainudin’s camp.

The three-coalition fight is over

The other long-term implication of the six state elections is that the three-coalition battles between the 14th general election (Harapan versus BN vs PAS) and the 15th general election (Harapan versus BN versus PN) have officially ended.

The political structure from now until GE16 will be a straight fight between the unity government and PN, unless PN implodes before the next general election.

The effort to mobilise Malay-only anger will wane once the anger is maxed out and ventilated and when the unity government can finally govern appropriately with the support of all ethnic groups.

LIEW CHIN TONG is MP for Iskandar Puteri, state assemblyperson for Perling, DAP deputy secretary-general, and a former deputy defence minister.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.