COMMENT | Is Anwar misreading the Malay mood?

“There’s none so blind as those who would not see.”

- Old proverb

COMMENT | Why has the Malay support for Pakatan Harapan and Umno/BN been on the decline since Harapan’s historic defeat of the once invincible Umno/BN in 2018 and after?

After all, they are two of the three key components of the so-called Madani government, the other being the GPS of Sarawak. Does it mean there is a lack of support for the unity government?

What can explain the continued rising tide of the “Green Wave” spearheaded by PAS in the Perikatan Nasional coalition which includes Bersatu and which seems to have captured the Malay heart and mind so decisively in less than a year?

Some plausible answers to these questions may unlock the key to understanding what the Malay mood is with respect to how they have voted in the parliamentary elections of 2022, the six state elections this year and the recent Johor by-election.

For this, one needs to go back to Harapan’s pyrrhic historic victory in 2018. Pyrrhic because the completely wrong person, in the form of Dr Mahathir Mohamad, became prime minister and ruined Harapan’s reform programme and the government.

His brand of divisive politics pitched DAP against PKR and Azmin Ali against Anwar Ibrahim to consolidate his own power. Despite having just 13 MPs in Bersatu, his influence was against all proportions.

He refused to hand over power to Anwar, was the cause of infighting which led to the defection of MPs, and was responsible for the fall of the government.

Malay distrust of DAP

DAP finance minister Lim Guan Eng’s pandering to the moneyed and upper classes, heading the phalanx to destroy the goods and services tax and hastening income tax refunds, left a huge revenue gap of some RM35 billion.

This was bridged with a massive Petronas dividend. Lim came under criticism meanwhile for not doing enough for farmers and fisherfolk. These and alleged high-handedness against senior civil servants in the Finance Ministry fuelled a Malay distrust and backlash against DAP which persists to this day.

It caused a swing against Harapan among Malays resulting in an erosion of support for PKR too. Harapan and PKR were given a chance by the Malays to govern but following the collapse of Harapan barely two years after winning in 2020, they were not going to give it another chance.

This was amply demonstrated in the state elections of Malacca (November 2021) and Johor (March last year) where Umno/BN, competing against both PN (Bersatu and PAS) and Harapan won big, achieving a two-thirds majority in both states. The results also indicate that PN had not taken a strong root in the south.

Emboldened, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi pushed for and obtained an early parliamentary election in November 2022, where Umno was decimated - winning a mere 26 seats and its partners four for a total BN number of 30. Harapan won 81, with DAP 40 and PKR 31. PN won 74, with Pas 49 and Bersatu 25.

‘Green Wave’

Thus the term “Green Wave” was invented with PAS, with whom the colour green is associated, winning 49 seats, becoming in effect the single largest party. Bersatu, riding under PAS’ robes, got 25, almost doubling the 13 it obtained in 2018 when it rode under the Harapan banner.

The trend continued in the state polls. Although as expected Harapan retained Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, PN through PAS made huge inroads in Penang and Selangor. The green grip in the northern states was astounding, PAS/PN, largely due to PAS, won all state seats in Kelantan, Kedah and Terengganu.

In the recent by-elections for the state seat of Simpang Jeram and the parliamentary seat of Pulai in Johor, Harapan retained the seats but there was a very large swing to PN nevertheless despite the very low voter turnout.

GE15 showed two things clearly - first Umno was a spent force no longer commanding much Malay support and two, Harapan’s Malay support has dwindled but its non-Malay support has stood solid. This was amplified in the state elections and the Johor by-elections.

We have partly explained Harapan’s lack of support from Malays earlier - mistrust of DAP, disappointment with opportunities squandered earlier and lack of real help for Malays.

Umno’s disorganisation

It’s easy to explain Umno’s results - a party devoid of organisational leadership and funding under Zahid and which is still reeling from corruption issues.

For all the bluster over Zahid and former premier Najib Abdul Razak, the fact remains that Malays no longer trust Umno and may not even support their return. In fact, Zahid won his parliamentary seat in Bagan Datuk with a narrow majority of 348 votes.

Harapan’s tacit support for a corrupt party and lack of reform to quickly bring miscreants to book means it is now painted with the same tainted brush used for Umno. While it may have been expedient to do a deal with Umno to get into power, it needs to push back against Umno’s agenda or risk losing more votes.

Keeping Umno and Zahid in his inner circle and pandering to their collective aspirations of releasing the court cluster, including Zahid, Najib and many other prominent Umno leaders is not going to endear the unity government to Malays. In fact, it is likely to turn them away. Anwar ignores that at his own peril.

One of the reasons for PAS/PN’s ascendency among Malays is a lack of clear alternatives given the tarred and feathered Umno and the disappointments of Harapan/DAP.

But there may be one more crucial factor which is talked about very little - this is the sense of community around the mosque that PAS has built up very strongly, filling a vacuum quickly left open by Umno’s disorganisation and even retreat. This is especially so in the northern states and is slowly but surely coming down the peninsula.

I am told the story of a person who went back to vote in the Penang mainland from KL during the state elections. Although a Malay and a DAP supporter in the urban area of Kuala Lumpur, she voted PAS.

That conundrum was explained thus: PAS people who stand for elections, know their constituents - they are there for births, deaths and major events, and help families through their problems. In that particular area, community was more important than anything else, including ideology, and she voted accordingly.

While DAP may be fine in urban areas, community matters more in rural areas and that is being far better served by PAS than any other party now. That may also explain Nurul Izzah Anwar’s shocking defeat in Permatang Pauh.

Fighting corruption

If Anwar does not watch it and takes a nuanced, enlightened approach to reading the Malay mood taking many factors into account instead of a rushed romance with Umno, he may well lose GE16.

Malays may not be in the mood to forgive and forget when it comes to grand larceny and corruption. Condoning any such action through inaction is likely to result in more loss of support than a net gain, especially when Anwar talks so much about fighting corruption.

Allowing a party which commands 30 seats to dictate terms is likely to have a backlash. Anwar needs to realise that if these 30 seats go - and they are unlikely to - the unity government still has a majority of 118 seats in Parliament out of 222. Anwar can afford to push back - Umno needs the unity government more than Anwar needs Umno.

Perhaps he is blinded by his close previous association with Zahid, who supported Anwar during the 1998 Asian financial crisis when the latter was ousted and both of them detained.

But to allow such relationships to colour cool-headed decision-making is indeed folly and may cost Anwar and the nation dearly.

P GUNASEGARAM says corruption cannot be fought by excusing a select few from it.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.

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