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COMMENT | 17th Sabah polls analysis: First look, Part 1
COMMENT | Nearly two-thirds of Sabahan voters have spoken, with a turnout of 64.4 percent. This is just short of that of the 2020 state polls at 66.6 percent.

The message of more local representation was sent loud and clear, with only eight seats (or 11 percent) going to federal-based parties. Underscoring this is a clarion call for better infrastructure, basic services, and a stronger, more inclusive economy.

The incumbent GRS administration led by Hajiji Noor has been returned to power, although he did not win an outright majority, securing only 29 seats and eight short of a needed majority.

He brought the members of GRS (PGRS and PBS) together, the Sabah-first Upko with three victories, five independents, and the one seat of Pakatan Harapan together to form a government in the wee hours of the morning.

It remains unclear at this juncture whether Star with two seats, PAS and KDM each with one seat, and BN with six seats will become part of the government. Warisan appears poised to anchor the state opposition, once again.

Assessing my predictions

My broad predictions outlined before the polls proved largely correct, with a few seats off amid the high uncertainty and competitiveness, discussed below. A public accounting of my predictions on Friday night and the results Saturday by seat can be found here/on my website.

The factors outlined in my earlier piece – local party sentiment, incumbency, individual vulnerabilities, familiarity, party resources, ethnic loyalties and splitting, as well as youth engagement over social media - remain salient.

In the final days of the campaign...


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