COMMENT | Umno and PAS have entered into a non-contest agreement in Negeri Sembilan. This has parallels to that of Johor, where PAS leaders called on their supporters to vote for BN.

In Johor, the deal was not reciprocated as Umno/BN contested solo in all seats. In Negeri Sembilan, it has been reciprocated, based on candidate announcements.

Many (mistakenly) claim this Malay swing was the reason BN did so well in Johor, with Perikatan Nasional core voter electoral transferability.

While BN won an estimated 84 percent of the Malay vote, my analysis of the Johor results does not find the PN electoral swing to be decisive. In fact, PAS’s swing is overrated in shaping the results. The Islamist party’s influence in Johor was minimal in determining the final electoral outcome in seats.

Starting with methodology

Let me explain, starting with the methodology. The first step in assessing the level of PN support is to...