The Ketari by-election to be held following Sundays death of state representative, Gerakans Loke Koon Kam has the potential of turning into yet another acrimonious squabble between DAP and Keadilan over the right to contest the seat.
DAP was quick to claim the seat. After all, DAP has contested the seat since 1974. But it has an even better reason the party lost by a tissue-thin majority of 231 out of the 11,820 votes cast when Ketari last went to the polls three years ago. DAP deserved to be given the chance for a rematch.
A three-cornered fight, which will be fatal to the opposition, is out of the question.
To its discredit, Keadilan has been ambivalent on its intentions for Ketari. According to the leadership in Kuala Lumpur, it would leave the final decision to its Pahang leaders, who are due to meet this Saturday.
True, local chieftains should be consulted. But while it is important to confer with them, Keadilan by being ambiguous on the matter is showing a lack of national leadership clearly, a problem which has lately been besetting the four-year-old party.
Perhaps its indecisive stand is to forestall defection within its ranks as had happened in the run-up to the Jan 19 Indera Kayangan by-election. Still, the opposition party must not allow petty local ambitions to sidetrack the oppositions national agenda.
On the other hand, PAS which is DAPs arch foe in the opposition camp has given an unmitigated endorsement to a candidate from the Chinese-based party.
Good chance
On paper, DAP stands a good chance of wresting the seat from Gerakan to add to its sole Pahang representative in Triang. Unlike Indera Kayangan, where the opposition needed a swing of 12.5 percent of those who had previously voted for Barisan National and Lunas, where it required a swing of 5 percent the swing needed in Ketari is a mere 1.3 percent.
But a caveat. DAP can only do it with the help from two of its key former coalition partners PAS and Keadilan.
Ketari, which has 17,357 voters, is an ethnically-mixed seat with 54 percent Chinese Malaysians, 39 percent Malay Malaysians, 5 percent Indian Malaysians and 2 percent of others a constituency make-up similar to Indera Kayangan.
In the past four general elections, Gerakan has held off the challenge from DAP with a majority of 1,507 in 1986, 3,027 (1990), 2,900 (1995) and 231 (1999). The slim majority in the last general elections Gerakans 5,874 against DAPs 5,643 is telling. Clearly, the swing in Malay votes has benefited DAP.
Herein lies DAPs dilemma. Party strongman Lim Kit Siang will surely go to Ketari to prove his point that the Chinese community has indeed been spooked by PAS Islamic state agenda, especially after Sept 11, and thus justifying his decision to quit the opposition Barisan Alternatif coalition.
But DAP cannot win the seat on Chinese votes alone. It has to at least retain the Malay votes it picked up in the last elections. Indeed, like Indera Kayangan, this by-election will be won or lost on Malay votes. And for DAP, the success of its assault on Ketari will depend on whether PAS is on its flanks.
It is likely that DAP will again field Choong Siew Onn to contest the seat. Having fought for the seat twice, Choong will pose a formidable candidate to a likely fresh-faced Gerakans contestant. Which is why Gerakan would prefer to avoid this by-election if possible. Nevertheless, it is expected to fight tooth-and-nail to defend its only beach head in Pahang.
Different challenge
The split in MCA could erode its ability to assist its coalition partner that is, if help is what they want to offer, given that both parties are at loggerheads in Penang.
But Gerakan can count on the ardent support from MCAs Team B. Unlike Indera Kayangan, where Team Bs interest was for the party to do poorly since this would reflect badly on rival Team A leader Dr Ling Liong Sik, Ketari poses an entirely different ball game.
The state constituency is part of the Bentong parliamentary seat whose former MP is none other than Lings rival, Lim Ah Lek. No doubt, Ling will hold Lim responsible if Ketari is lost to the opposition when the partys feuding factions square off in the upcoming leadership polls.
As for Umno, expect it to try and repeat its feat in Indera Kayangan by locking in the Malay votes well before both PAS and Keadilan could do any damage.
And just as Indera Kayangan had boosted the political fortunes of Perlis Menteri Besar Shahidan Kassim, Ketari will be an acid test for Pahang Menteri Besar Adnan Yaakob. This is especially so given that he hails from Bentong.
Political pundits will undeniably be watching this by-election closely. After all, Ketari is likely be the last stop before the next general elections, possibly called as soon as year-end.
More importantly, Ketari will determine whether the ruling coalition has indeed reclaimed its lost Malay ground or whether the opposition can work together despite their differences to put a significant chink in BNs armour.
