The RM60 bil doesn't turn me on at all
I refer to the Malaysiakini report Analysts sceptical over stimulus .
This stimulus package is not transparent enough to comment on with regards as to whether it would work or not. RM60 billion is not enough to stimulate a RM350 billion economy that relies heavily on exports and foreign direct investment (FDI).
It is like trying to boil water in a swimming pool using an electric kettle.We are running a budget deficit - in short, spending money we have not earned yet to finance this stimulus. Worse when our earnings from commodities are on a downward trend.
It is also foolish to bail out national automaker Proton for we lose far more disposable income nationally than Proton can hope to provide in terms of employment and other economic spin-offs. A car industry for a population of less than 30 million such as ours is simply not viable - the only way it survives is by unfair competition.
The government also wants to employ another 63,000 people for an already overstaffed, inefficient and sluggish civil service.You cannot provide employment for the sake of employing - the former USSR tried this with catastrophic results.
This RM60 billion represents about 9% of our GDP. This will push our fiscal deficit from the current 4.8% to a whopping 7.6%. Most of the spending will be on loan guarantees, infrastructure and public sector expansion with nary a sign of tax cuts that are the hallmark of most stimulus 101 packages with the view to encourage growth.
Only RM15bil or a quarter of the budget is in a form of direct fiscal injection. A cursory look at some details reveals items like upgrading firemen's living quarters, toilets etc and other dubious items which should have been addressed in the main annual budget.
To make matters worse, they have cut interest rates and this could push us into deflation which will be harder to come out of than inflation. Inflation in Malaysia is at a 27-year high but the government of the day tells us that everything is alright - they must have been taking economics lessons from Mr Bean.
Our rapid growth was achieved partly through the privatisation of inefficient state-owned enterprises, thus subjecting them to commercial pressures and forcing them to better utilise their resources. Many deals were done behind closed doors and pushed through rather quickly.
In one example, Khazanah Nasional alienated shares in DRB Hicom to Mega Consolidated. This led to such deals being labeled mega-projects.
Thus we can see that in the long term, the ringgit steadily weakened against the US dollar amid runaway inflation and artificially suppressed wages. I am truly wondering what our outgoing PM meant when he said recently that there was not much fluctuation of the ringgit against the US dollar when there has been a steady decline since 1980.
In this second stimulus package, a total of RM10 billion or a whopping one-sixth of the total has been awarded to Khazanah Nasional. The earlier RM7 billion stimulus widely criticised as inadequate has drawn further ire after it has been revealed that though it was announced last November, about RM5 billion worth of projects will begin only around June.
The government also recently disclosed that these projects went to Class F contractors who are largely linked to Umno. On top of being ranked a shameful No.132 in a freedom of speech index, reports from Amnesty International and Transparency International are not very flattering either.
These reports are perused by most foreign investors before deciding on whether to invest or not. Ignore this at your own peril.
It is pointless for the BN government to churlishly blame the local economic malaise on excessive politicking that they started in the first place, then alternatively say that it is a global meltdown and this after denying repeatedly that we have a problem.
In fact, I put it to the BN government that they are using the global economic meltdown as a shield against their shortcomings and had the meltdown not happened, I would not be surprised to see regional economies chugging along while ours lagged behind.
I offer some unsolicited advice to the government of the day though these, of course, do not include macro economic measures which are better left to competent economists:
1. Review all lopsided agreements with the Independent Power Producers and the water, electricity and toll barons.
2. Scrap the glorified summer camp scheme known as National Service and use the money for scholarships
3. Barter trade to partially circumvent commodity speculators. For example, we can exchange our palm oil with Saudi Arabia for their crude oil.
4. Abolish duties on imported items that protect inefficient local industries and stop subsiding industries that swallow funds but do little for our economy.
5. Call for open tenders when awarding contracts so we can do away with overinflated prices charged by crony companies that have no expertise in the first place.
6. Unless you can prove that our country is in imminent danger of invasion, sell off the Scorpene submarines and other non-essential military hardware. Use the proceeds to upgrade public transportation.
7. Include the opposition-controlled states in the tourism ministry’s MOUs and allocate retraining resources for those retrenched in the electronic sector for tourism careers.
Tourism has a multiplier effect on other sectors. There is much to be done to woo foreign tourists. With declining FDI this area becomes more important.
8. Retrain a segment of fishermen to do fish farming to stabilise the price of this diminishing resource. Preserve marine ecosystems and save on diesel subsidies.
9. Stop bailouts but instead offer incentives based on performance. In cases where bailouts are justified, strict conditions should be imposed.
10. A total moratorium on personal income tax for two years - yes, tax cuts are the most common stimulus to increase spending and domestic demand.
11. Provide coupons for unemployed and those living below the poverty line to purchase essentials for their basic sustenance.
12. Do away with the monopoly for Internet service providers. TM Net’s Streamyx service is so bad that businesses that rely on the wired world have had second thoughts about setting up shop here.
The general population cannot be blamed for seeing Streamyx as another bailout of government cronies who are inefficient and monopolistic, with little direct benefits for the man-on-the-street.


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