The results of the recent by-elections are not unexpected. While the status quo was expected to remain, what was surprising was the increased margins of the winning side, especially in the battles of the two Bukit .

BN leaders have been telling the people and their grassroots that Malay votes have begun to return to Umno, what with the charges of derhaka against the ousted menteri besar of Perak Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin being floated around to work up the feelings of the people on the ground.

Even though I do not have the breakdown of the voting streams yet and hence would not be able to tell how much of the Malay votes have returned, common sense dictates that with the increased margin won by PAS and PKR respectively in Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau, it is unlikely that a significant number of Malay votes have returned to BN.

This despite the awesome BN election machinery, the catchy rhetoric of the new prime minister and the return to the fold of Umno of a former prime minister who also campaigned on behalf of the BN candidates.

Why is it so?

Whereas during the time of the 12 ^th general election 13 months ago, people in West Malaysia simply wanted to teach BN a lesson for being arrogant and corrupt. This time around, they sent a message that they want to see the changes which have not been forthcoming.

The people are getting smarter, and unless they see real changes, they would not be so easily bought by the rhetoric which to them is more ‘hype’ than anything else.

It is also significant that despite the huge amount of money promised for the Chinese schools and temples, the non-Malays still voted the other way. This is because of the perception of the people that anything cannot be worse than the present.

Before, the non-Malays treated PAS like poison; now they have no qualms at all voting for this party, an unthinkable act just two years ago. This shift in mindset will be a big factor in the next general election, especially with a million young voters expected to join the voting fraternity.

Umno, as the dominant component of BN, has to initiate real reform and must be seen as being sincere in reforming.

The million-dollar-question is always whether the top leader has the will and can be strong enough to initiate a total overhaul of the whole party. Given the entrenched politics of patronage, it is indeed a tall order for any leader to change the party..

As for the components, the writing is very clear on the wall. In this by-election of Bukit Gantang, Gerakan had worked very hard, especially its Wanita chief who had practically camped out in the constituency even long before the nomination period.

Their members from Perak had campaigned hard. It is noteworthy that one of the state constituencies under Bukit Gantang, Kuala Sepetang, was a former stronghold of Gerakan and used to be won by Gerakan candidates before the March 8, 2008 tsunami.

This time around, despite their efforts, the party had failed to convince its former supporters to come back to support BN. The same is the case for the MIC in Bukit Selambau.

The by-election result of Bukit Gantang is a clarion call to Gerakan that the voters in Gerakan’s former strongholds, as represented by Kuala Sepetang, will not vote for Gerakan in the next general election.

They will not vote for Gerakan if it remains as part of the BN coalition unless Umno adopts real reform. This means that Gerakan’s fate is no longer its own to decide and the longer it takes ‘Big Brother’ to change, the worse would it be for Gerakan to survive as a viable political entity.

The party needs to re-evaluate its position within BN and re-strategise, failing which it may face annihilation in the next general election and go the way of the PPP.

The silver lining for BN is perhaps the win at Batang Ai which showed that the strong winds of change that are blowing over the Peninsular Malaysia have not reached East Malaysia yet.

Nevertheless, this cannot be guaranteed and come the next election, the thinking of the people there may not remain the same especially if there is no reform from BN in general and Umno in particular.

Perhaps as the first step towards reform, BN should heed the voices of the people and seriously consider dissolving the Perak state assembly so that new state-wide elections can be called to let the people decide once and for all who should helm the government of Perak.