In a political calculus, the result of upcoming Hulu Selangor parliamentary by-election is of mere academic importance, for it would not alter the political landscape of the nation. An additional member of Parliament (MP) for either side would not change the balance of power between the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) and the challenger, the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) coalition.

However, at the strategic level, this by election for the P094 constituency holds far wider and serious implications extending beyond the serene borders of Hulu Selangor to the national and the international repercussions. All nine by-elections since the 12 ^th general elections pale in insignificance compared to this one.

This battle would be closely watched nationally and internationally and the result would be interpreted as a referendum on Prime Minister Najib Razak and the self-declared PM-in-waiting, Anwar Ibrahim.

Firstly, the timing of this by-election is crucially important for several reasons. Coming at the mid-way point to the 13 ^th general election, the voters are in a great vantage point to deliver their verdict on the performance of the two-year old Pakatan government in Selangor led by Khalid Ibrahim and PM Najib’s reform agenda.

More crucially for Pakatan, the voters are also can be expected to pass their judgment on the on-going so-called ‘Sodomy 2' trial against the Pakatan supremo and PM-wannabe, Anwar Ibrahim.

There is little doubt that this is one by-election that Pakatan Rakyat (PR) and Anwar Ibrahim must win at all costs. A defeat would be not just disastrous but surely will herald the beginning of the end of Pakatan’s hope of forming the next federal government and Anwar’s long quest for the premiership.

If Pakatan loses, this would be a hammer blow that they might never recover. International allies of Anwar would view this result as a damning indictment of the Malaysian electorate on Anwar’s popularity and on legitimacy of the ‘Sodomy 2' charge. The global support for Anwar has markedly reduced recently and a setback at Hulu Selangor would end the favorable foreign media coverage and political support that the Pakatan chief has enjoyed since his ouster as the DPM.

Further, this would also fatally compromise Pakatan’s Putrajaya ambitions and probably also end the political careers of Zaid Ibrahim and Khalid Ibrahim. It is widely known that many Pakatan’s elected representatives joined the party not to serve the rakyat but to amass power, position and material wealth. As such, the current trickle of defections of these reps would turn into a raging torrent that would implode the party and shatter the Pakatn alliance into pieces.

A negative result for Pakatan would also effectively mean that the voters in the coming Sarawak state elections would take hint and vote to preserve status quo rather than taking a gamble on a party that has been firmly rejected in the Peninsular.

On the other hand, a defeat for BN would merely mean that the Hulu Selangor voters are yet to be convinced by Najib’s political and economic transformations and ‘1Malaysia’ concept. BN is in an enviable position where they can afford to lose the by-election, yet stands to reap a huge dividend and gain a major, morale-boosting victory if they win this one.