It is a commonly held belief throughout the world that the prime motivation for the proposed US invasion of Iraq is its desire to secure Iraq's oil reserves.

As Prime Minister Dr Mahathir was quoted as saying: "We feel that the US plans to invade Iraq are for other reasons - to take control of Iraq's oil found in abundance" ( Bernama ). However, how far is this likely to be true?

One report by the Council o­n Foreign Relations (CFR) and the James Baker Institute of Rice University, has argued that Iraq's oil is not the prize it seems from afar. Iraq does possess vast reserves, but its infrastructure is, in the words of the Dutch experts who inspected it a few years ago, in 'lamentable' condition.

A decade of sanctions and under-investment have cut Iraq's output and done permanent damage. In the short run, a war would further disrupt Iraqi oil production (especially if Saddam Hussein were to destroy the oil wells): the result would be greater market power for Opec and maybe US$40 per barrel crude, says Phil Verleger (an energy economist affiliated to the CFR).

Even assuming that rebuilding the oil sector were a top priority for a new government, the CFR-Baker study has estimated that it would still take nearly a decade and up to US$40 billion to revive Iraq's oil sector. After that, it is possible that Iraq's output could be lifted as high as 4.2 million-6 million barrels per day. However, this would still fall far short of Saudi Arabia's staggering output of 8 million barrels per day.

It is highly unlikely that an Iraqi government would ever leave Opec to go for volume instead, the Saudis have so much more oil than anyone that they will always win a price war.

It is also likely that talk of a speedy revival of Iraq's oil sector may be too optimistic. A report from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has pointed out that, after a regime change, there would be numerous competing claims for money that would slow investment for oil: food, reconstruction, paying for 'democracy building' and keeping the peace. Iraq also has debts of US$100 billion, not including war reparations due to Iran and Kuwait for Saddam Hussein's past aggressions.

In conclusion, for all the accusations that the US is motivated by cheap oil, there would probably be no such prize. As the CFR-Baker report says: "There has been a great deal of wishful thinking about Iraqi oil."