Most Read
Most Commented
Read more like this

You don't think that is possible? Just consider some simple facts. In the last general election in 1999, the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) won an overpowering majority of three quarters of seats in Parliament. And that was achieved against overwhelming odds, which were:

  • The Anwar effect was at the highest, with mass exodus of Umno members and supporters to PAS and Keadilan.

  • All opposition parties, namely DAP, PAS, Keadilan and PRM, were united under Barisan Alternative (BA) to fight against a shaken BN with a common manifesto.
  • The democratic world led by US and Australia were openly hostile to Mahathir's leadership, due partly to the unjust persecution of Anwar, and partly to Mahathir's constant vitriolic attacks against the West.
  • The economy was in tatters, reeling from the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
  • With these heavy odds, how did BN manage to win a landslide victory? The answer lies in the following trump cards held by BN:

    • The existence of a host of repressive legislations (ISA, Sedition Act, etc, etc.), which BN readily abused to clamp down on the opposition.

  • BN's complete control of all radio and TV stations and newspapers, all of which were traditionally abused to enhance its autocratic rule. At election time, these acted as propaganda machines of BN, to the complete exclusion of the opposition.
  • A subservient Election Commission serving the parochial interests of the ruling power, to the detriment of the opposition.
  • Partisan roles played by all state institutions such as the judiciary, the Attorney-General's Chambers, the police, the ACA and all government and statutory departments, etc. in favour of the ruling power.
  • BN's unlimited supply of funds as against an impoverished opposition.
  • Equipped with these trump cards, BN rampaged across the election arena, breaking rules at will, to snatch victory over a completely handicapped opposition. The rules broken by the victor included abuse of government machinery and resources for election campaign purposes, bribery (buying candidates and voters), blackmail (threat of racial violence, deprivation of development funds) and frauds ( phantom voters , questionable postal votes, gerrymandering ).

    So, this is the great Malaysian election story that sees BN returned by landslides, election after election.

    Now that we have a new prime minister who has won the hearts and minds of people at home and abroad as a clean and humane leader, how would the opposition fare against BN? Let us put in a bit of analysis.

    Start by reviewing how the factors bedevilling BN in the 1999 election have changed.

    • The Anwar effect: the heat has receded. Anwar's image and struggles have faded from public view, thanks to the manipulation of the local mass media. Part of the previous mass defection from Umno is expected to return to the fold.

  • The united opposition front has been disbanded, due to PAS' decision to implement its Islamic state. With DAP out of the BA, both sides will cease to enjoy cross-flows of racial support (Malays supporting DAP, and Chinese supporting BA) that would otherwise be the case.
  • Foreign powers led by US have turned friendly towards Malaysia, thanks in part to the change in the political landscape caused by the Sept 11 attacks on the US, and in part to Abdullah's more amiable diplomacy.
  • Economic growth has returned to normalcy, with the stock market surging and foreign investors beginning to take an interest again in the Malaysian economy.
  • Having turned the cons into pros, one would have expected 'Mr Clean' Abdullah to afford to practice some semblance of democracy by allowing some fairness in the election. Particularly when he was riding on an unprecedented wave of public approval, the basis of which were his promises to wipe out corruption and restore a clean and efficient government. So, what better opportunity can he have to showcase his promised land than to restore a tinge of decency to the conduct of this election?

    But alas, admirers of Mr Clean are in for some disappointment. Not only were unfair practices maintained, he even tightened the stranglehold on the opposition further by imposing a ridiculously short campaign period of seven and a half days, which is a new record. At the same time, three top leaders of Keadilan were barred from standing in the election, which was a reversal of the Election Commission's own ruling earlier that they could stand as candidates so long as their convictions were put aside pending appeal. Predictably, the candidates' recourse to the courts was also rejected.

    Deprived of access to the electronic and printed media, and banned from holding any mass rallies, this ultra-short campaigning period will prove fatal to the opposition, as it is physically impossible to traverse the country and spread a message to the masses within that few days. In contrast, apart from receiving headline treatment all the time, BN has flooded all the newspapers in all languages every day with scores of full-page advertisements, in addition to round the clock broadcasts over all radio and TV stations, indulging in self-glorification while concocting lies to undermine the opposition.

    It does not take much political shrewdness to conclude that with the head wind turned into a tail wind for BN this time, and with the playing field becoming even more unlevelled, the opposition is expected to fair much worse than in the last election.

    As for the DAP, it has to face the inevitable prospect of losing whatever meagre Malay votes it managed to secure through association with PAS and Keadilan in the last election. Without this small dose of Malay votes, DAP will only have a fighting chance of winning in constituencies where Chinese electorates constitute more than 70 percent of the total electorate.

    BN component parties MCA and Gerakan showed themselves capable of securing 40 percent to 60 percent of the Chinese support in the last two elections. With only 12 such constituencies in the whole of Peninsular Malaysia now (Sabah and Sarawak are completely dominated by BN) thanks to successive gerrymandering, DAP's fight for survival is tough indeed.

    Keadilan may face a even more bleak future, in view of an expected return flow of Malay support to Umno, and an erosion of Chinese support due to Keadilan's continued association with PAS whose Islamic state agenda is completely unacceptable to the Chinese.

    PAS is also expected to suffer electoral setbacks, due to the latest gerrymandering and a return flow of support to Umno. However, its support among Malays arising from the mass exodus of Malay supporters from Umno during the Anwar crisis as exhibited in the 1999 election, will remain solid and formidable.

    This is due to the fact that many Malays who left Umno out of anger at the humiliation of Anwar, have become permanently disillusioned with Umno's immorality and materialism, following Anwar's unrelenting exposure of its hierarchy as mostly a bunch of corrupt self-seekers.

    For sure, DAP will still be returned with a few MPs, and Keadilan may also succeed in clinching one or two seats, but this insignificant electoral success will surely demoralise these parties completely, and shuffle them to the dustbin of history in due course.

    So what? As MCA propagandists scream in scores of full-page advertisements one seat less for DAP is one seat up against PAS' Islamic state, so isn't this an occasion to celebrate?

    Imagine our Parliament occupied by only two competing political parties one advocating an instant theocratic Islamic state, and the other implementing an insidious Islamic state. How does the absence of secular parties DAP and Keadilan help to push back the tide of Islamisation of the government? Answer please from MCA propagandists?

    The other question arising from the elimination of DAP and Keadilan is whether it helps to strengthen Abdullah's hand at reforming Umno and the government. As it stands now, when parliamentary opposition is negligible, Abdullah has already proved himself not up to the task of dislodging the heads of state governments of Johor, Negri Sembilan, Melaka, Kedah, Perlis, and possibly Sarawak.

    At the end of his Herculean efforts, he could only manage to move the leader of one state (Negri Sembilan) from state to federal government (that incumbent has warmed his seat for 22 years). The rest are still cosily nesting in their little kingdoms, having successfully fended off Abdullah's encroaches.

    If Abdullah can't do some re-alignment during the occasion of a national election with a view to prevent continuation of corruption, can he be expected to bear down on the corrupt heavy weights with the full force of law later on? So far, he has not netted any big fish yet (politically, Eric Chia and Kasitah Gaddam are lightweights). Will he have what it takes to boldly put the incorruptible stamp on the top echelon of the Umno hierarchy after the election, keeping in mind that the waters surrounding him are shark-infested? Without cleaning up the top echelon, any anti-corruption campaign will be futile.

    In fact, from Abdullah's own point of view, he should welcome vibrant participation by the opposition in the nation's political process if he is sincere and serious in wiping out corruption. He could then use the external pressure applied by the opposition as leverage against internal opposition towards his attempt to purge the corrupt.

    Finally, is Abdullah free of the taint of corruption and cronyism? He may not be involved personally, but is it true that his brother's company was awarded a long-term lucrative contract to provide catering services to Malaysian Airlines System?

    Is it also true that a petroleum company was recently awarded a RM2 billion contract, and such contract works were in turn awarded to his son's company? Are all contracts awarded directly or indirectly to companies controlled by the prime minister's relatives strictly based on the recipients' merits, free of elements of favouritism?

    On this eve of election, one thing is certain: Abdullah is leading the charge into this election with the prospect of a sweeping victory brighter than at any other time in recent memory. Collateral to that, Keadilan and DAP are battling for their survival with a real risk of starting their journey into oblivion.

    Are we aware of the full consequences of such an eventuality? What must we do as voters to avert it?

    ADS