There has been some news in the grapevines that two former foes have met and are planning to make some moves to oust the leader of the current administration in Putrajaya. It may sound and look simple in a democracy that functions well, where there are there separate organs of  state which check and balance each other to ensure that there is a fair governance of the state that they administer. But in the case at hand, that is easier said than done!

Lets look at the hurdles that we may have before us before a vote of no confidence can be successful.

The speaker of Parliament

Pandikar Amin Mulia has clearly shown himself to be a politically-motivated speaker as opposed to a neutral speaker like what you see in other parliamentary democracies which practice mature politics.

The constant throwing out of young members of Parliament who are vocal and want the grievances of the constituents heard through them in Parliament is a clear indication that it may be a very difficult hurdle to get over if ever a vote of no-confidence is brought about against the prime minister by any one member of Parliament.

The speaker will continuously disallow it regardless of the fact that there may be a big number of MPs who are in favour of such a vote.

The PM would have known that this may be a step in which his opponents may try to oust him and he has taken precautionary steps by being very close and friendly with Pandikar.

Knowing our system of patronage  and feudalism which is a very thick vein in most of our politicians from the BN side of the hall, it will be a very easy task for the current administration to undertake with their ‘cash is king’ tagline being the underlying principle in the way in which they carry out their governing. Most of these MPs will be more bothered about themselves as opposed to the betterment of the electorate who put them in Parliament.     

Therefore with the speaker covered and the rest of the MPs in BN with the exception of a few whose allegiance may still be subject to what is on the table in the form of a deal, the plan to have the speaker allow a motion of no-confidence to be heard and followed with a show of hands to support the motion will be very unlikely.

Who knows, we may have to physically remove the speaker like the precedent set in the Perak state assembly in 2009 when the first ethnic Indian speaker of a state assembly, V Sivakumar from the DAP, was forcefully removed.

The BN MPs

This will be the easiest part for the PM, with his current criss cross trips around the country and especially to the fixed deposit states of Sabah and Sarawak, almost all the BN MPs with the exception of a few from the peninsula and Sabah will support him because most of those from the current crop seem visionless and rudderless as leaders themselves.

They seem to act and portray themselves as leaders who are unable to speak their mind on issues which they would differ from the ultimate leader who is the PM.

In event there is an attempt to oust the PM with a vote of no-confidence, the initiators will find it difficult because we have yet another precedent which we should not forget which is the attempt by the opposition to get the BN MPs to cross over after the 2008 elections. The MPs were jetted to Taiwan on a study trip so that there would not be enough members when the attempt is made to cross over.

In similar fashion, the PM may have in mind such an idea which a good majority of our BN MPs will be more than willing to go along with.

The opposition MPs

This lot will be the ones who will support the move without the need for any cajoling. The MPs from PAS may waver, especially the ones from the ulama faction, but the ones from the newly formed Gerakan Harapan Baru (GHB) will definitely support any attempt at passing a no-confidence vote on the current prime minister.

But the opposition will have to play it cautiously because as the saying goes, political enemies today can be political friends tomorrow as such there is no such thing as permanent friends or enemies in politics. So they will have to be prepared to be used today and ready to fight another battle against the same people that they are willing to co-operate with today.

The police force

We don’t need further analysis on this matter as the police force is firmly behind the current sitting prime minister. Even if there is an order to arrest individuals under Section 124B of the Penal Code, we have a force that will not think twice to act immediately to show their loyalty and faith in the administration. Sad, but that is the true situation in which our police force has descended to today.

Now with the home minister being given a promotion to become the deputy prime minister, the police will be eager to show their immediate chief, who is the home minister that they can be counted on when the situation and the need arises to protect the position of the prime minister.

The Armed Forces

This will be another loyal institution which the prime minister can rely on as he was their boss for a long while before being promoted. Now, with his cousin being made in charge of the defence forces, it can be rest assured that there will be no challenge and opposition amongst the ranks of this institution. Further, the armed forces have never been known to be having political ambitions like what we see in our northern neighbour.

With a major embarrassment being covered and assisted with by the administration when flight MH370 went missing, the military will do whatever that it will be ordered to do should a threat arise to its former boss.

The Judiciary

This has been basically covered since we now see a new generation of judges having taken over from the old guards who had the quality and the testicular gumption to tell off the executive. The new breed are very eager and please to show that they can be relied upon even if it clearly doesn’t make any sense legally if the rules of natural justice are applied.

They are allegedly prepared to bend and sway the law and write judgments which can be clearly seen to be written to protect a grand design in which wielders and schemers who hold the magic wand of power wish for things to be done. Therefore, it will be difficult to ever believe that they will be independent and uphold what is right and the will of the people.

The Attorney-General’s Chambers

This was a department which could be relied upon to weed out all the political opponents which are a torn under the flesh of the ruling elite and it still very pertinently doing just that. It may have been a shock and a jolt to have the former number one of the Chambers to be simply dismissed like that but knowing the current state of affairs for civil servants in the country, there is just no such thing as a security of tenure any more.

It has become pro-regime-like civil service where the top management level professional civil servants are closely monitored to see if they are aligned to the establishment or believe in the rule of law and rights and liberties as safeguarded in the federal constitution. Therefore as far as the Chambers is concerned, there will now never be a senior federal counsel that will dare draft a charge against the all-encompassing supreme leader of the land.

Therefore in conclusion, the prime minister has got it covered, can we blame him? Who are we to blame? Can we blame the system? Why isn't there a system of check and balance? What happened to the independence of the organs of state? What happened to our system which was one of the best left behind by the colonialist in post independent South-East Asia?

Who dismantled it? Is the person who dismantled it regretting now? Has he created a powerful political monster which cannot be stopped?  

Malaysians are peace-loving people because of our geography, we have always been visited from both sides of the peninsula, the Indians, South Asians, Africans, Arabs and the Europeans from the west and the Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, Australians and the Americans from the east; we have always been welcoming. Can this be the reason why we were so easily conquered?

The Hindu Empires, the emergence of Islam through trade, the coming of European powers and then to be so easily conquered by the Japanese who came a-calling on bicycles. That is our past, now we are being bullied by our own; are we still going to keep quiet and continue with our submissive trait?

We would not have been able to come this far if our forefathers had been quiet, now to allow complete supreme control centred to one office to continue the dismantling will be a disservice to the future of this nation. The people will have to decide now.