LETTER | I am writing in reference to a Malaysiakini article yesterday about Gerakan's plans to stand in 30 seats in the upcoming polls in six states.

Its president Dominic Lau (above) was quoted as saying “Gerakan has chosen 30 seats to contest in Kedah, Penang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan”.

One cannot be faulted for thinking that Gerakan is a hanger-on in national politics, riding on the coattails of its larger and stronger allies in Perikatan Nasional (PN), which are Bersatu and PAS.

Compared with the two Malay-centric parties, Chinese-dominated Gerakan doesn't even have any MPs in the Dewan Rakyat, while PAS has 43 and Bersatu, 31.

But is Gerakan, once a dominant player in Malaysian politics, especially in Penang, now a spent force? Will all the party's candidates lose in the upcoming state elections, as it did during last year's general election? Will Gerakan be reduced to a footnote in history?

Historically, Malaysian politics has been littered with dramatic comebacks. Anwar Ibrahim was jailed twice in attempts to scupper his chances of becoming the prime minister but he defied the odds and was sworn in as PM last year.

Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Muhyiddin Yassin were both sacked by their parties before they became prime minister, the former twice over. In the 2004 general election, PKR only won one seat but today, the prime minister is from PKR with 31 MPs.

It is, therefore, too early to write off Gerakan, which only a few years earlier, was a major political player and still retains a not insignificant presence in its power base, Penang.

More importantly, Gerakan can, during the state polls, take advantage of the rise in popularity for PN as evidenced by the support the coalition received in the last general election. Back then, PN almost formed the federal government but the plan fell through after some parties switched allegiance at the 11th hour.

While much of the surge in PN's support is attributed to Malay backing, Gerakan, which has traditionally stood in Chinese-majority or mixed seats, stand to gain from the voters' disquiet following the conclusion of the last GE.

The federal government's unpopular decisions over issues like the appointment of Ahmad Zahid Hamidi as deputy prime minister, the back-pedalling on issues like no political appointments in GLCs, the hike in the overnight policy rate, as well as unfulfilled electoral pledges, may see the voters taking advantage of the state polls to send the Anwar administration a stern warning. In other words, Gerakan stands to harvest the public discontent with the unity government.

In Penang, once the crown jewel of Gerakan which used to helm the chief ministership, there's also growing unhappiness over issues like the Penang South Island development, the recent water woes as well as the perennial traffic jams on the island.

To make matters worse, the deadlock over allocation of seat talks for the state polls between former arch-nemesis, the Pakatan Harapan and BN, may spill over, leading to internal disputes and possible intra-coalition sabotage that will ultimately only benefit Gerakan.

Even within DAP Penang, there's a split. A recent news report about an alleged covert putsch to replace Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow has struck a raw nerve within the party rank-and-file.

After helming Penang for three terms, there has been simmering discontent among the voters there with the DAP-led Harapan state government. And there's no telling how Penangites will vote in the upcoming election, just as how almost no one predicted the 2008 fall of the Gerakan-led government.

Besides, with the current political mess the country has got itself into, there's nostalgia for the good old days when Gerakan stalwarts like former chief minister Lim Chong Eu transformed the state from a backwater to an industrial and commercial powerhouse not just in the country, but regionally.

In any case, Gerakan, having established a national presence for decades, has a well-oiled electoral machinery, which can prove crucial once campaigning gets underway.

For now, there's no telling if Gerakan will rise from the ashes and reclaim its past glory, especially in the state elections. But it'd be foolish to write off the party which is hoping to gallop into history as a dark horse.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.