The current arrests under the despicable Internal Security Act (ISA) are sending shockwaves in Sarawak. When Abdul Ghani Haroon was arrested in Kuching while on his way to board a flight to Kuala Lumpur, Keadilan supporters were frantically calling up all friends to check if any local Keadilan members were arrested.

The ISA crackdown indeed seriously dampened public support for Barisan Alternatif, especially around Kuching. Many who initially travelled several hours on motorcycle just to listen to PAS and Keadilan rallies are now guarded.

In the past, a crowd of 5,000 is considered small. A ceramah by PAS' Nik Aziz Nik Mat used to be attended by over 15,000 people; now he can barely command more than 1,000 persons.

The fear syndrome was further compounded by Sarawak Chief Minister Taib Mahmud's warning that the next state election would be his toughest since 1987. His remarks during a dinner welcoming International Trade and Industry Minister Rafidah Aziz on April 18, were carried by Borneo Post in an article entitled 'Political Parties from West Malaysia will bring in violent politicking as seen in the Lunas by-election'.

Recently, he elaborated that firm action would be taken against troublemakers.

Political analysts are now wondering whether Taib is specifically referring to supporters of PAS and Keadilan. In the last parliamentary election, Sarawak Tourism Minister Abang Johari was badly received by opposition supporters at a rally in a mosque in Kampong Bintawak Hilir, Petra Jaya. Packet drinks and cakes were thrown at the minister while he was on the rostrum. Similar incidents were reported elsewhere and Keadilan performed extremely well in several parliamentary areas.

Whether the recent strong warning by the Sarawak chief minister would stop the erosion of support towards the state Barisan Nasional, nobody knows. But reformasi supporters are searching for a 'safer' alternative rather than return to Taib's BN. The current groundswell for a change in the state's leadership may swing to the group led by Abang Abu Bakar.

Veteran opposition figures reminded many young Barisan Alternatif supporters to be wary of Tun Abdul Rahman Yaakub, Taib's 'nemesis' and a clear supporter of the reformasi movement in the state. They cautioned that in 1987, many candidates from Permas led by Tun Rahman were arrested under the ISA soon after the state elections. Eleven were finally detained in Kamunting, including former state assembly representative Wan Yusuf. He was contesting in Asa Jaya against Taib.

Tun Rahman left for London when Permas' influential leaders were arrested under the ISA. He could do the same thing this time around on his supporters with Keadilan and PAS. If the rationale by Abang Abu's group that Tun Rahman actually never seriously intended to defeat Taib, then supporters for Keadilan and PAS may again be sacrificed after the coming state election.

Many reformasi supporters are switching to Abang Abu's group. A potential Keadilan candidate has changed his platform, saying, "I feel safer with Datuk Abang Abu, as he intends to bring Umno here. Pak Lah won't order an arrest on Umno members in Sarawak."