Things are happening thick and fast in Umno. The power struggle that erupted in the party after the March 8 general election debacle seems to be headed towards a conclusion by March next year. That is six months plus change away - a long time indeed in politics.

While it would seem that Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is on his way out, it is difficult to see him and his supporters riding off into the sunset quietly. The ‘agreement’ reached at Friday's Supreme Council meeting may just be a temporary truce designed to buy time for Pak Lah and his forces.

All in, an interesting six months lie ahead where Umno is concerned. But if Friday's agreement holds true, it does not spell good news for Anwar Ibrahim in particular and Pakatan Rakyat in general. With these latest developments, Anwar may be in danger of losing the initiative he grabbed after the general election, and which hit its peak with his recent thumping win in Permatang Pauh.

It is unfair to blame or ridicule Anwar for not "delivering" on his promise to take power the government on Sept 16. After all, if instability and chaos is to be avoided, two must tango, and the Umno-led government, which holds all the power of incumbency, has refused to dance.

But perception is often reality in politics, and his inability to out manoeuvre the BN may be passing the initiative back to Umno. And that could spell really dire times for Anwar personally as well as for the new mentality that is just beginning to develop some strong roots among Malaysians.

The one very effective thing Anwar has been able to do since March 8 has been to apply consistent and very disruptive pressure on Umno. This pressure has served to not allow the ruling party any breathing space to sort itself out.

With Sept 16 long gone, and Anwar now all but conceding that what his opponents do will help determine if and when Pakatan takes power, there is a sense that Umno has ridden the immediate storm, and will now have the time and focus to address its internal problems.

If things go according to the Umno plan, Najib Razak is almost certain to take power within the next six months - and he is the worst possible enemy Anwar would want calling the shots. Their fight is personal, and Najib has already shown his ruthless streak even as the country's No 2.

And while they are unproven, if all the allegations Raja Petra Kamarudin has made regarding the involvement of Najib and his wife in the Altantuya killing are true, then Najib is clearly not a good man to have as an enemy.

With all the levers of power in his hand, with the country's police and military at his beck and call, and with Anwar's old nemesis Mahathir Mohamad probably on board again, it may be no exaggeration to say that a repeat of 1998 could be on the cards.

But there could also be trouble for the opposition in general. It is a given in politics that a new broom - or even a newly-promoted old broom - can often give a party a new lease of life, at least long enough to call another general election and win a "defector-proof" victory. Some voter-pleasing moves and statements by the new boss in town may be all that is required for the vastly experienced pros in Umno to bring their party back to full bloom.

Anwar and Pakatan Rakyat need to act fast f they are to avoid losing their best-ever chance of effecting real change in the country. Anwar is already 61, and if Umno is able to secure for itself a reasonably strong mandate for five more years, Anwar's chance to lead the country will be as good as over. It is difficult to see him making a bid for power in his late 60s, especially with his health problems.

And with him out of the picture, it is hard, at this point at least, to see any other personality who could replace him in terms of mass popular appeal and the ability to hold Pakatan together.

Predicting the future is often said to be a mug's game. Clearly, the future - especially in politics - could unfold any old way it wants and not necessarily the way it is predicted.

As stated earlier, it is possible that this "solution" in Umno may just be a treatment of the symptoms, and the underlying problems may resurface in short order. It is possible that Malaysians may have finally reached a point where they really don't care about Umno any more, irrespective of which broom is put at the top.

It is also possible that Anwar and Pakatan have not really played out their cards yet. After all, the final battleground to prove once and for all whether Anwar has got the parliamentary backing he claims will be Parliament itself. It could be settled on Oct 13 or thereabouts when the Dewan Rakyat reconvenes.

What seems clear though is that the fragile, hard-won window of opportunity for Anwar to walk the walk may be beginning to close - and another one beginning to open for Umno to redeem itself.