I refer to the Malaysiakini report Perak gov't on the brink of collapse .

If BN has any sense of self-preservation it should back off from trying to take over the Perak government by enticing three elected representatives to defect.

Pakatan Rakyat will definitely dissolve the state assembly and call for snap elections rather than handing the state government over to BN. Although this requires the consent of the ruler, this consent is likely to be given.

The ruler, in his wisdom, cannot in all reasonableness hand over the Perak government to BN with an unstable one-seat majority and be seen to be acting impartially.

If one analyses the result of the March 2008 elections, there are many seats which BN won marginally and these would be swept up by PR with increased support from the non-Malays.

The March 2008 results were influenced by non-Malays' lingering fear of PAS. Such fears have evaporated with the admirable performance of the Perak government headed by a PAS menteri besar which has shown it can treat all races fairly.

As for the Malays, there is no evidence that BN has increased its support among them.

The result of the Kuala Terengganu by-election should sound warning bells for BN that the ground sentiments which caused their last general election losses are still very much alive.

If BN cannot win in a strong Malay majority area, with all their resources poured into a single focal point, how will they fare in Perak with many mixed constituencies?

MCA would be dreaming if it expects the Chinese in Perak to increase their support for BN.

Indeed, the the PAS-led Perak government has taken steps to issue permanent land titles to smallholders which MCA has not been able to achieve for 50 years under BN rule.

The likely result is that BN will get a severe trouncing in Perak which will send shockwaves to further destablise its grip on federal power.