There is this nursery rhyme by Mother goose, about an overgrown egg that fell off and broke. And all the king's horses and all the king's men could not put Humpty-Dumpty back again.

But what if, it is all the king's horses and all the king's men that is trying to push Humpty-Dumpty down?

NONE This is probably what Pakatan Selangor is facing as the federal government tries to win back the state.

And this is no nursery rhyme.

Prime Minister Najib Razak made the pledge last month while opening the Kuala Selangor Umno division meeting.

Since even before the announcement, the beleaguered Pakatan state has been the subject of a concerted campaign and a pattern of harassment aimed at toppling it.

As DAP supremo Lim Kit Sing puts it, "The Selangor Pakatan Rakyat government is facing a life-and-death threat with a high-powered Umno-BN conspiracy to topple it at all costs and restore Umno-BN rule in Selangor as in Perak six months ago."

But the question remains ‘Will Pakatan Selangor fall? Is the beleaguered state another Perak in-the-making?'

To answer that question, let us look at the the probability of Selangor standing or falling and the effects and fallouts of the attempted takeover on both sides.

S'gor is still Pakatan stronghold

From a superficial look, Pakatan can be confident that its democratically elected state government will stand. This is.based on three major factors which makes Selangor a veritable Pakatan stronghold.

As Ethnic and Racial politics lecturer Noor Sulastry Yurni Ahmad of Universiti Malaya (UM) observed, "While Selangor was once a bastion for BN...it is now a Pakatan stronghold."

khalid ibrahim pc 120809 01 Firstly the Selangor government is riding high on the crest of public opinion.

A Merdeka Centre poll recorded MB Khalid Ibrahim's approval rating is as at 64 percent.

This may throw a spanner in the works of any takeover plans that BN has cooked up. If push comes to shove, Pakatan also has the option of leveraging their popularity by resorting to ‘people power' ala Corazon Aquino.

Considering the public's penchant for civil disobedience of late, the effect can be overwhelming.

The next stumbling block, as pointed out by Selangor Speaker Teng Chang Khim, "Even if there are eight Adun jumping ship, their [BN] number is still not enough."

BN holds 20 seats in the Selangor State Assembly, PAS 8, DAP 13 and PKR 15.

Pakatan is leading with 36 seats, just shy of the two thirds majority of 38. Nonetheless it is a clear majority by a whopping 16 seats.

For BN to take over Selangor, it would need at least eight seats, to get 28 seats on par with Pakatan.

Add one or more seats and BN will have a simple majority.

But getting eight or more seats is not easy.

It is difficult to engineer such a massive defection. After Perak, Pakatan is now watching its back and representatives closely.

While the barn door closed too late for Perak., the Selangor Pakatan Aduns might just yet be saved.

And it would take an act of God - via miracle or tragedy - for eight or more by-elections to occur.

Even then, BN will face a hard time. The public support for Khalid will translate into votes, aided by the ‘sympathy' factor if the ruling coalition continues to ‘bully' Pakatan Selangor.

The recent string of defeats for the ruling coalition in at least seven by elections speaks volumes for it's chances.

The third factor that may hold back BN from sinking its teeth into Selangor has nothing to do with the ballot, but the fact that the ruling coalition is five Aduns short.

Teng believed that "Selangor will not be another Perak at least in the next six months.

This is because Khir Toyo and other 4 BN Aduns had been suspended for one year and six months respectively."

The state speaker suspended five BN representatives including ex-MB Khir for contempt of the house.

This followed the latter's refusal to attend the Selcat hearings convened to investigate alleged financial improprieties during his tenure as Selangor MB.

"Moreover Khir cannot become the Menteri Besar in one year," he clarified, alluding to the ex-MB's suspension from the house which would make him ineligible to take over as MB until the suspension period is over.

Without the five, BN will find it difficult to call for, let alone pass a motion of no confidence and form a new state government, even if it managed to acquire support from errant Pakatan representatives.

Perak and Selangor different

However, the situation in Perak has shown that despite seven of it's Adun's being suspended by the speaker, BN still bulldozed the state assembly and calling in the police who dragged out Pakatan Speaker Sivakumar forcefully before they could elect another speaker to cancel the suspension order on them.

When asked if the same can happen in Selangor, Teng replied that "The two states were in different circumstances

v sivakumar perak state assembly speaker being dragged out of the assembly incident 130509 film strip In Perak's case, Sivakumar suspended the BN Aduns to counter the takeover, but Khir and four others were suspended even before the issue of takeover could be entertained."

The Selangor speaker added that, "these five Selangor Umno excos cannot just simply overturn the suspension like in Perak."

However, he denied that the suspension was to counter the takeover in Selangor.

But the ace up Pakatan's sleeve is the Selangor Legislative Assembly Service Commission Enactment (Selesa) 2009 which will be tabled in the house to provide sweeping powers to the speaker and state assembly.

If it carried through, the bill will allow for a greater degree of independence of the state legisture than the executive.

This includes the ability to hire its own personnel and the power to police its own grounds.

This is something that could have prevented the un-ceremonial ‘manhandling' of a State Speaker by federal government appointed personnel.

When asked if the Selesa bill is a pre-emptive measure, Teng denied that the enactment was to prevent what happened to the Speaker in Perak from happening in Selangor. He explained, "this enactment had been drafted even before the Perak takeover."

However, he admitted that if Perak had passed this enactment, "Sivakumar might not have to face the insult [done to him and his office]."

Pre-emptive or pro-active, the Selesa bill may yet thwart BN's machinations and help to ensure Pakatan's hold over the state.

BN takeover still possible

Despite the opposition's hold over Selangor, it is still possible for BN to strong arm its way into forming the new state government.

The simplest way is for BN to engineer the defection of an entire party from Pakatan.

The obvious target is of course PAS, because of the current rift that exists between Selangor PAS and the DAP.

As Teng accused, "Hassan Ali wants to become Menteri Besar, so to a certain extent, he is helping Umno to create chaos in Selangor."

With eight seats in the state assembly, a defection by PAS would give BN enough numbers to stand toe to toe with the remaining Pakatan parties, 28 and their 28.

All BN needs to do next is to pressure one or two PKR or DAP representatives to switch sides.

For one, Port Klang Assemblyperson, Badrul Hisham has gone ‘missing', and many are speculating that he is about to announce his defection.

NONE The Adun has also been rumoured to be at odds with the current Selangor PKR youth leadership.

As was in the case in Perak, Pakatan assemblypersons confronted with corruption allegations and those unhappy with their lot are easy prey for BN.

Other candidates that may fit the bill are the Pakatan representatives currently being investigated or has charges brought up against them in the courts.

Selangor exco Ronnie Liu, for example has two cases pending against him.

While the Pandamaran assemblyperson has remained stalwart so far, greater pressure may be brought to bear on him or others facing the wrath of government prosecution.

Anyone of them may crack under pressure and defect.

But the exco members are not the only ones under duress.

BN even has a threat of bankruptcy over Selangor MB Khalid Ibrahim's head.

His RM66 million dispute with Bank Islam may see the former PNB CEO declared bankrupt, and thereby disqualifying his elected seat and MB's post.

BN may also use a trick it learned from Perak should it get a simple majority. The ruling party can play the Royal card and petition the Sultan to declare the MB's seat vacant.

This effectively bypasses the state assembly and the need for a vote of no confidence.

Looked at from this perspective it won't be long before a beaming Najib will address the nation to announce who rules in Selangor.

Damage to Pakatan already done

But regardless of who will be ruling the state in the coming months, the fact remains that the damage to Pakatan both in Selangor and on a national level has already been done.

The constant barrage of BN attacks have left permanent scars on Pakatan Rakyat, and cracks which the ruling coalition has chiseled are becoming crevases.

NONE Commenting on the stability of Pakatan Selangor, Speaker Teng said, "There are many issues that have arise since Pakatan ruled the state."

He clarified that the issues are mainly because of conflict between personalities, like the one between Hassan Ali and Ronnie Liu, rather than any fundamental flaw in Pakatan itself.

According to him, "Selangor is the most stable among Pakatan states because the three parties' leader's meet every fortnight to discuss important and sensitive issues and reach consensus before they are brought to the state exco meeting to be passed. This mechanism has been in place for more than 1 year."

UM Arts and Social Science lecturer Noor Sulastry agreed, sayinf that "Fundamentally, Pakatan is still stable, however all the mud-slinging from BN will continue to ‘taint' the opposition coalition."

The ‘taint' that may overshadow Pakatan up until the next general election and may shake it if not totally break the opposition coalition.

Form a formal union

In her view, the only way forward is for the three parties to form a formal union.

She explained, that without such a joining, the loose opposition coalition lacks the structure and guidelines to govern the relationship amongst its members and advocate a unified policy about all matters.

As things stand, we would usually have three stance on a single issue from the Pakatan trio with differing ideologies.

Noor Sulastry further explained that unless Pakatan forms a real coalition, it would continue to suffer from divisive tendencies.

But she admits there are pros and cons to a formal grouping.

But Pakatan is not alone in its suffering.

Even BN is in trouble whether or not it succeeds in taking over Selangor.

The ruling party may stand to reap the wrath of the Chinese community.

As Noor Sulastry puts it, "The will be a reaction from the Chinese, there may even be demonstrations."

She said that this mainly stems from the lack of Chinese representation in any administration that BN can cobble together if it can displace Pakatan in Selangor.

As it is, MCA only has two seats in the Selangor assembly. Barring any Chinese representatives that BN may entice to crossover, this will reduce the number of Chinese excos that can be appointed to the state council.

From the generous representation under Pakatan, the Chinese community may find itself under represented in the new state administration.

This is similar to the Perak sitaution with the new BN government being almost exclusively Malay.

But regardless of who may or may not be demonstrating, what BN's blatant actions demonstrates is an apparent lack of respect for the rakyat and the democratic vote.

Something that may see what remains of the public's trust in the ruling coalition be dashed to forever.

Should that happen, Humpty-Dumpty may have been better off.

And nothing that Najib and BN could ever do to put back the fragile pieces of the party, back together again.

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